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65.7% of home buyers south of 120 Bypass from SJ Valley

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Almost 7 out of 10 homes now being built south of the 120 Bypass are being bought by existing Manteca residents and those from elsewhere in the Northern San Joaquin Valley.

HIME ROMERO/The Bulletin/

POSTED September 16, 2017 1:19 a.m.

Conventional wisdom says most of the people buying homes now being built south of the 120 Bypass hail from the Bay Area, have lots of kids, and are squeezing  Manteca residents out of the local housing market.
Guess again.
Data gleaned from 140 homes either just completed or being built in two different subdivisions  south of the 120 Bypass — Raceway and Rina’s Grove — paints an entirely different picture. And what the numbers shows has major policy implications for both the City of Manteca as well as the Manteca Unified School District.
Among the 140 home buyers:
u53 or 37.8 percent are from Manteca.
u92 or 65.7 percent are from the Northern San Joaquin Valley. That includes 53 from Manteca, 11 from Stockton, 10 from Tracy, 7 from Lathrop, 3 from Mountain House, 3 from Modesto, 2 from Ripon, 2 from Lodi, and one each from Patterson, Livingston, Los Banos, and Kingsburg.
u43 of the remaining 48 are from the Bay Area.
uAmong the Bay Area buyers 16 are from San Jose, 5 are from Fremont, 3 are from Santa Clara, 2 are from Livermore, 2 are from Castro Valley, 2 are from Hayward and one each from Antioch, Pacifica, San Leandro, Oakland, San Mateo, Sunnyvale, Pleasanton, and Campbell.
uJust over half of the buyers have 2 or less people who are living or will live in the homes — 64 with two people and 10 with one person.
uThe household size of the rest of the buyers are 17 with 3 people, 36 with 4 people, 10 with 5 people, 2 with 7 people and 1 with 8 people.
u8 percent of the buyers are retired.
u38 percent of buyers — 54 households — are between 35 and 45 years of age.
u27 percent of buyers — 38 households — are between 25 and 34 years of age.
u14 percent of buyers — 20 households — are between 45 and 54 years of age.
u14 percent of buyers — 20 households — are between 55 and 64 years of age.
uThe rest of the buyers — 8 households — are 65 and older.
As for Manteca homes being “unaffordable” for younger Manteca families, 20 of the buyers of the 140 homes or 14.7 percent are Manteca households between the ages of 25 and 34. There is also one buyer each from Lathrop and Tracy that falls into the 25 to 34 age category.

Bulk of Bay Area buyers
snapping up existing
Manteca homes
Manteca is still the affordable housing option for the Bay Area. It’s just that the bulk of it isn’t tied into new homes at the moment. The majority of resale homes in Manteca are being bought from people with addresses west of the Altamont Pass. They also tend to have younger children.
That fits into a demographic trend Manteca Unified has picked up on. Buyers of newer homes tend to have older students that are either in high school or close to being so while buyers of existing homes usually have elementary-aged or pre-school children.
But the sheer number of Manteca buyers selling to Bay Area families to relocate into a new home south of the 120 Bypass could create a situation MUSD experienced in the last housing boom that started 18 years ago — some existing elementary school attendance areas could grow as rapidly with new students those that have new subdivisions being built in their attendance boundary. The last time around Shasta School — considered by demographers to be an inner city school based on its location and age and not any other connotation —grew significantly. That’s because the nearby housing stock was popular and many long-term owners were among the initial buyers when homes were built initially for the first time south of the 120 Bypass near Woodward Park.
It means existing elementary schools throughout Manteca could experience some enrollment growth easing the impact south of the 120 Bypass.
The decision to re-configure Manteca High and build facilities to accommodate growth and take the capacity up to 2,200 students will be less problematic given  the current new home buying trend south of the 120 Bypass has nearly 4 out of every 10 buyers already living in Manteca.

Trend could impact
Manteca politics
The current trend if it continues could be problematic for Manteca politics in a number of ways that could create unexpected clashes.
Most research tends to underscore that homeowners are more attuned to local city issues and tend to be more consistent voters. As things stand now almost half of all new home buyers south of the Manteca already were living in the city. That means they are plugged in to local issues already.
It could create friction in unexpected ways given that three council members will live within a half mile of each other south of Atherton Drive once Debby Moorhead moves into her new home. Council members Gary Singh and Richard Silverman already live in the area.
While the council has been pretty consistent with looking out after issues throughout the community how growth is taking place and where current council members live could leave some living north of the 120 Bypass that the city is more focused on South Manteca.
At the same time arguably the biggest issues facing Manteca is how the city makes sure there is adequate funding to provide needed services to support growth south of the 120 Bypass including police and fire protection as well as development of the street system.
At any rate, if the trend holds it could spare Manteca from becoming balkanized by the fact the overwhelming majority of growth  is taking place south of a physical barrier — the 120 Bypass. With new residents from the Bay Area and elsewhere buying throughout Manteca it will allow for a smoother assimilation.
The Manteca move-up trend of new homes being bought by local buyers as defined as the Northern San Joaquin Valley mirrors what has been happening at River Islands at Lathrop. The majority of the nearly 600 homes built or being built have been sold to valley buyers led by Mountain House and Tracy.

To contact Dennis Wyatt, email

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