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110,000 Mantecans by 2030

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POSTED December 26, 2008 12:05 a.m.
It took 115 years for Manteca’s population to reach 44,000 in 1995.
To add another 44,000 residents on top of the 66,457 people now living in Manteca it will take just 22 years.
Manteca’s projected 2020 population is part of an extensive forecast for the entire San Joaquin County made by the University of the Pacific’s Ebhardt School of Business’ Forecasting Center.
Manteca’s population is expected to increase by more than 65 percent over the next 22 years to reach 110,000 residents.
Overall, San Joaquin County is expected to go from 657,000 residents in 2005 to 1,047 million people in 2030.
The highlights of the population study for San Joaquin County:
• The Hispanic population is expected is rise from 34% in 2005 to 44% in 2030 and will surpass the white population in terms of sheer numbers sometime between 2010 and 2015.
• San Joaquin County’s teen birth rate for women between 15 and 19 year of age is 56.3 per 1,000 compared to the state rate of 27.8 per 1,000.
• The county’s teen pregnancy rate had dropped from 62 per 1,000 in 200 to 52 per 1,000 in 2005 before starting an upward climb again.
• The general fertility rate for San Joaquin County exceeds the state and national average by 10 per 1,000 women.
• The county has grown by more than 2 percent per year since 1970 at almost 1.5 times the state rate and over two times the national rate during the past 35 years.
• Between now and 2030 San Joaquin County will grow an average of 1.9 percent annually at a rate double that of the state and the nation.
• Whites accounted for 41.4 percent of the county population in 2005 and will drop to an estimated 25.2 percent in 2025.
• In real numbers, the white population will have gone from 269,700 in 2005 down to 262,200 in 2030. Meanwhile, the Hispanic population will climb from 218,400 in 2005 to a projected 451,800 in 2030.
• San Joaquin County grew by 12,000 residents in 2007 to reach 680,000.
• Manteca increased by 1,000 residents in 2007 to top 65,000.
• Tracy also grew by 1,000 residents last year to reach 81,000.
• The Hispanic population in San Joaquin County nearly doubled between 1990 and 2005 reaching 232,932.
• The Black population doubled during the same time reaching 48,544 residents in 2005.
• The Asian population grew by over 50 percent in 15 years to reach 87,614 by 2005.
• Manteca’s household median income hit $62,000 in 2007.
These statistics are critical in trying to attract retailers and restaurants to Manteca and other San Joaquin County communities. The data is accessed by the private sector through the San Joaquin Council of Governments to make short and long term investment decisions especially in the retail sector.
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