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Sellers lower their expectations to match the reality

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POSTED October 7, 2011 1:03 a.m.

If you look at Manteca’s housing resale housing market, it is about as close to flat-line as you can get.

The median value of closed transactions on homes - the number that really counts - is at $175,100 so far this year compared to $185,000 in 2010 and $178,000 in 2009. The three-year variance is a loss of 1.6 percent in value over two years.  Normally that wouldn’t be joyous news but with today’s economy it’s great news.

At the same time transactions are on pace to average over 1,150 homes sold for each of the last three years.

Part of the market equation is expectations. This year marks the first time in perhaps 15 years - if not longer - that those pricing homes are doing so almost on par with the trend in closed escrows once all homes are thrown into the mix.

Listing prices are a key component of market trends as it reflects the attitude and expectations of sellers.

For that aspect, Manteca sellers haven’t become extremely realistic.

Here are a few vitals measuring sellers’ expectations and the market:

TOTAL INVENTORY:  This is a statistic that is important in terms of how buyers are matching up with sellers. There was a time when the market was considered at equilibrium when there was a 90-day supply which is determined by taking the daily absorption rate based on closed deals and dividing it into the inventory. Today, that absorption rate is 80 days. If this was a normal market, sellers would have the upper hand. But that is not the case today due to the shadow inventory of foreclosures.

•INVENTORY 2 YEARS AGO: 244 homes

•INVENTORY 1 YEAR AGO: 381 homes

•INVENTORY 6 MONTHS AGO: 323 homes

•INVENTORY TODAY: 296 homes


MEDIAN LISTING PRICE:
This is the number everyone seems to watch. What you believe you can get for a home, after all, is the bottom line. It isn’t a specific number in terms of what people expect a house will fetch but rather the median of all listings and is used to reflect the overall market. The real McCoy in terms of the market is the median selling price that is recorded for all properties that have gone through escrow. The median listing price is down 11 percent from two years ago.

•MEDIAN LIST PRICE 2 YEARS AGO: $195,000

•MEDIAN LIST PRICE 1 YEAR AGO: $189,000

•MEDIAN LIST PRICE 6 MONTHS AGO: $189,900

•MEDIAN LIST PRICE TODAY: $175,000


MEDIAN PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT: This number is the barebones measure of a house without taking into account differences in age and amenities. The median price per square foot is down 2 percent over the past year.

•MEDIAN PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT 2 YEARS AGO: $103

•MEDIAN PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT 1 YEAR AGO: $99

•MEDIAN PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT 6 MONTHS AGO: $96

•MEDIAN PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT TODAY: $94


MEDIAN DAYS ON MARKET: This is the number of days the typical home goes from being listed to having a signed contract. A typical home is selling 19 percent faster than they did two years ago.

•DAYS ON MARKET 2 YEARS AGO: 70

•DAYS ON MARKET 1 YEAR AGO:  54

•DAYS ON MARKET 6 MONTHS AGO: 60

•DAYS ON MARKET TODAY: 59

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