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Manteca rebound in home prices is stronger than in SF

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POSTED January 3, 2013 11:44 p.m.

Here’s a shocker.

Manteca’s housing price rebound based on existing home sales is stronger than the San Francisco market.

In fact, based on data provided by the Case-Shiller indexes, Manteca is performing better than most of the “hot” urban markets.

Manteca’s prices based on closed escrows have gone up 23.0 percent from November 2011 to November 2012. That compares to 8.9 percent for the same time period in San Francisco

But if you consider one more factor - how far the median prices dropped from the market peak - it makes sense.

Manteca prices peaked at $420,000 in 2006 before plunging 59.5 percent in value to $170,000. San Francisco’s prices dropped 34.0 percent from peak. Manteca’s drop was much deeper than any of the current urban markets that are seeing brisk sales and price rises.

Manteca’s drop was so steep that home prices fell significantly below the cost of building the same home new. At one point, a number of homes that were in good shape were selling for barely twice the cost of making a lot build-able and the associated growth and connection fees.

Much of Manteca’s most recent price boom has been in the depressed McMansion market. The mega-tract homes - particularly those near Cowell School - saw prices plunge by two thirds. Making matters worse as prices of other property rose people -including investors - shunned them due to the cost of monthly upkeep in terms of utility bills.

The hottest sellers in Manteca - three bedroom homes - rose in year-to-year prices by 21.4 percent going from $140,000 to $170,000. That’s still significantly lower than five years prior when the median selling price of such homes was $300,000.

Still, the demand for three-bedroom homes as well as their average price point is seeing a steady climb while other floor plans of two or four or more bedrooms have retreated ever so slightly. In the week ending Dec. 26, the asking price for three bedroom homes was $278,589 or two percent more than the previous week. That has a lot to do with high demand and scarce inventory of three bedroom homes.

The demand for three bedroom homes is reflected as well in the price per square foot. They are going for average of $115 per square foot. That compares to $100 for two bedrooms, $109 for four bedrooms, and $110 for all floor plans.

If the market in 2013 simply repeats last year, a 23.0 percent increase in value would add $52,083 to the median cost of a home in Manteca. That would bring the median price to $278,543. It’s a far cry from $420,000 but it is a lot better than $170,000.

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