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17 out of every 100 Manteca homes receive default notices
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Roughly one out of every 17 homeowners in Manteca received a notice of default in the first three years of the housing crisis.

Lathrop was hardest hit with 37.2 percent of all homeowners getting default notices in 2007, 2008 or 2009. The only community topping Lathrop in San Joaquin County was Mountain House with 39.5 percent of all homes falling in that category. Ripon’s notice of default rate among its housing stock was 8.3 percent for the three years.

Simply receiving a notice of default doesn’t mean homes end up in foreclosure. The notices go out when a homeowner falls two or more payments behind. In some cases the owner becomes current and doesn’t receive another notice. Sometimes they get a notice, become current and then fall behind again. Others are sold as short sales or modified. However, there are a number of modifications that have gone into double default.

The statistics were gleaned from a report issued by the University of Pacific Ebhardt School of Business Forecasting Center.

The hardest hit areas in Manteca were in the 95337 ZIP Code which is everything south of the Union Pacific Railroad tracks. There was an 18.8 percent default rate or 1,275 homes that received a notice of default. It was somewhat better to the north of the tracks in the 95336 ZIP Code where 15.7 percent or 1,648 of all homes received notices.

Countywide, 47 percent of all homes built in 2005 were distressed followed by 45 percent of those built in 2006. The distress rate dropped to 8 percent for homes built in 2008 reflecting corrections to the mortgage lending process.

The size of home most likely to receive a notice of default was between 2,500 and 4,000 square feet with 22 percent of all the 3,000 square foot homes in the county receiving notices of default.
The least likely were homes over 5,000 square feet. The default rate was less than 5 percent, just under half of the next closest category at 5,000 square feet and a third of those homes under 1,000 square feet that had a 14 percent default rate.

The report anticipates another one to three years of high toxicity in the San Joaquin County housing market before foreclosures return back to normal rates.