San Joaquin County by 2036 will surpass a million residents.
And by 2040 Hispanics will account for just more than 51 percent of a population expected to reach 1,068,254 residents. The Census Bureau estimated the county’s population on July 2011 at 692,214.
The projections are part of a population growth analysis conducted by the Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Pacific for the San Joaquin County Council of Governments.
Hispanics are expected to account for 278,500 more people or 73 percent of the county’s population growth over the next 30 years. Hispanic is already the largest population group.
The biggest growth in age groups will be among those 60 and older with 1-in-5 residents falling in that category. All population groups except for one are projected to have double digit growth in overall numbers by 2040. The non-Hispanic white group is expected to decline 8.7 percent by then or 21,400 people to 224,600.
Other highlights of the population projection study include San Joaquin County:
• in 2040 will still be younger than California as a whole.
• will continue to see strong international and domestic migration for the foreseeable future although at a lower rate than before the housing bust.
• will see the primary working age group of those aged 20 to 59 shrink to 46.7% of the population in 2040 from 52.5% in 2010 to reduce the tax base and place a growing strain on local budgets.
• would still grow by 350,000 residents to reach a population of 935,128 by 2040 based only on birth and death rates ad assuming no migration.
• growing by 1.4 percent annually through 2040 compared to the national projected annual growth rate of 0.9 percent.