It’s not supposed to happen - according to the cable TV financial talking heads - but Florsheim Homes has already sold eight homes in the fifth phase of the Valley Blossom neighborhood without any buyer even inspecting a model.
“People need to stop listening to the macro news,” noted Joe Anfuso who serves as Florsheim Homes’ chief executive officer. “Prices around here (the Northern San Joaquin Valley) have already stabilized pretty much because this was one of the first areas to be hit.”
It is a view shared by agents at Atherton Homes, Del Webb at Woodbridge, and other new home builders who are on pace for the third straight year to lead all Northern San Joaquin Valley jurisdictions for new homes sold.
Manteca and the rest of the Northern San Joaquin Valley started tanking - primarily because of how high prices got - while much of the rest of the country was still chugging along with housing sales. Manteca’s resale median price peaked at $429,000 in 2005. It is now at $182,700 as of Monday. That reflects a $4,700 increase in median prices over 2009.
“This isn’t the second Great Depression,” Anfuso, who has appeared several times on Good Morning America to discus the housing market. “People are still spending money. They’re going out to eat. They’re going on vacations. They’re just more careful how they spend it.”
He expects the housing market to improve after the election when consumer confidence is predicted to settle due to less political uncertainty.
Anfuso, however, isn’t about to proclaim that the regional economy is out of the woods.
He does argue, though, that a rare historic equilibrium has been reached in Manteca and nearby communities where it costs the same to buy as it does to rent.
“We check the rentals and you can’t rent a lot of three bedroom homes for $1,200 a month,” Anfuso said.
Part of the success of the fifth phase of Valley Blossom has to do with the fact the map was reconfigured to reduce the lots from 72 down to 42. That allowed for larger lots and larger single story homes to reflect the changing market demands. In the early part of the Great Recession, Florsheim had success selling smaller homes on smaller lots.
“The market is changing,” he said. “To cut costs we’ve gone to simpler designs. We’ve reduced the various lines on the facades and the garages are more traditional being forward on the lot.”
Secondary bedrooms are also a bit smaller with the basic foot print coming in at 10 by 12 feet but it was done while increasing the size of the great rooms where families spend most of their time. It was a change based on homebuyer input.
Florsheim Homes has sold 77 homes in Manteca during the past four years. That’s a number that once represented less than a year’s production when the market was overheated in Manteca.
Even so Manteca has had two back-to-back years with more than 300 new homes built and sold. That compares to Modesto a year ago that had just eight homes sold and Stockton with 120 sold.
Things slowed down after the federal and state tax credits expired. Anfuso noted, though, that the traffic they see now in models is almost exclusively made up of serious buyers.
On the resale side, Manteca is still bucking the national trend toward double digit drop offs in closed deals in the past two months. Sold homes are down slightly.
As of Monday, 918 existing homes had closed escrow in Manteca so far this year with another 199 deals pending and 295 homes on the for sale list. Manteca is on pace to end the year with 1,124 closed deals. That compares to 1,211 existing homes sold in 2009 and 1,165 sold in 2008. It is almost three times the number of homes sold in 2007 when 402 deals closed.
The median selling price so far this year is $182,700 compared to the median closed deal of $178,000 on existing homes last year. Florsheim has several new homes that sell for less than the Manteca resale median.
Anfuso notes the fact Manteca is an attractive area for new home buyers who can be picky given the downturn essentially means the clock is ticking for future price increases from new home builders.
Manteca now has less than 600 finished lots remaining that represent an average $55,116 per finished lot that developers have stranded in the ground. That’s based on City of Manteca data compiled from builders. That has prompted builders to aggressively price homes to retrieve their investment.
“In the next few years the supply of finished lots is going to run out and that in turn will put upward pressure on prices since Manteca is a desirable area for buyers,” Anfuso said.
Part of the reality is that prices new homes are commanding will have to increase before developers are willing to risk investing $5.5 million up front in costs needed to prepare a typical 100-lot subdivision for building homes. That figure includes land costs, grading, engineering, infrastructure and extending public and private utilities.
Del Webb has broken ground on improvements to create 49 more lots at its age-restricted project in north Manteca.
Anfuso noted Del Webb at Woodbridge is a niche market and therefore subject to slightly different market dynamics.
“People need to stop listening to the macro news,” noted Joe Anfuso who serves as Florsheim Homes’ chief executive officer. “Prices around here (the Northern San Joaquin Valley) have already stabilized pretty much because this was one of the first areas to be hit.”
It is a view shared by agents at Atherton Homes, Del Webb at Woodbridge, and other new home builders who are on pace for the third straight year to lead all Northern San Joaquin Valley jurisdictions for new homes sold.
Manteca and the rest of the Northern San Joaquin Valley started tanking - primarily because of how high prices got - while much of the rest of the country was still chugging along with housing sales. Manteca’s resale median price peaked at $429,000 in 2005. It is now at $182,700 as of Monday. That reflects a $4,700 increase in median prices over 2009.
“This isn’t the second Great Depression,” Anfuso, who has appeared several times on Good Morning America to discus the housing market. “People are still spending money. They’re going out to eat. They’re going on vacations. They’re just more careful how they spend it.”
He expects the housing market to improve after the election when consumer confidence is predicted to settle due to less political uncertainty.
Anfuso, however, isn’t about to proclaim that the regional economy is out of the woods.
He does argue, though, that a rare historic equilibrium has been reached in Manteca and nearby communities where it costs the same to buy as it does to rent.
“We check the rentals and you can’t rent a lot of three bedroom homes for $1,200 a month,” Anfuso said.
New homes selling
for $1,209 a month
But you can buy a new $169,900 three bedroom Valley Blossom Home with 1,286 square feet for $1,209 a month and $2,925 out of pocket using the California Homebuyers Down Payment Assistance Program.for $1,209 a month
Part of the success of the fifth phase of Valley Blossom has to do with the fact the map was reconfigured to reduce the lots from 72 down to 42. That allowed for larger lots and larger single story homes to reflect the changing market demands. In the early part of the Great Recession, Florsheim had success selling smaller homes on smaller lots.
“The market is changing,” he said. “To cut costs we’ve gone to simpler designs. We’ve reduced the various lines on the facades and the garages are more traditional being forward on the lot.”
Secondary bedrooms are also a bit smaller with the basic foot print coming in at 10 by 12 feet but it was done while increasing the size of the great rooms where families spend most of their time. It was a change based on homebuyer input.
Florsheim Homes has sold 77 homes in Manteca during the past four years. That’s a number that once represented less than a year’s production when the market was overheated in Manteca.
Even so Manteca has had two back-to-back years with more than 300 new homes built and sold. That compares to Modesto a year ago that had just eight homes sold and Stockton with 120 sold.
Things slowed down after the federal and state tax credits expired. Anfuso noted, though, that the traffic they see now in models is almost exclusively made up of serious buyers.
On the resale side, Manteca is still bucking the national trend toward double digit drop offs in closed deals in the past two months. Sold homes are down slightly.
As of Monday, 918 existing homes had closed escrow in Manteca so far this year with another 199 deals pending and 295 homes on the for sale list. Manteca is on pace to end the year with 1,124 closed deals. That compares to 1,211 existing homes sold in 2009 and 1,165 sold in 2008. It is almost three times the number of homes sold in 2007 when 402 deals closed.
The median selling price so far this year is $182,700 compared to the median closed deal of $178,000 on existing homes last year. Florsheim has several new homes that sell for less than the Manteca resale median.
Anfuso notes the fact Manteca is an attractive area for new home buyers who can be picky given the downturn essentially means the clock is ticking for future price increases from new home builders.
Manteca now has less than 600 finished lots remaining that represent an average $55,116 per finished lot that developers have stranded in the ground. That’s based on City of Manteca data compiled from builders. That has prompted builders to aggressively price homes to retrieve their investment.
“In the next few years the supply of finished lots is going to run out and that in turn will put upward pressure on prices since Manteca is a desirable area for buyers,” Anfuso said.
Part of the reality is that prices new homes are commanding will have to increase before developers are willing to risk investing $5.5 million up front in costs needed to prepare a typical 100-lot subdivision for building homes. That figure includes land costs, grading, engineering, infrastructure and extending public and private utilities.
Del Webb has broken ground on improvements to create 49 more lots at its age-restricted project in north Manteca.
Anfuso noted Del Webb at Woodbridge is a niche market and therefore subject to slightly different market dynamics.
