Manteca — if current trends hold — will end 2019 with the lowest burglary rate since 2000.

As of Sept. 30 there had been 527 burglaries handled by the Manteca Police Department.  That covers residential, auto, commercial, and the catch-all category dubbed “other”.

Burglaries are down 20.03 percent from the same first nine months of 2019 when there were 659 burglaries. If the number of burglaries committed in October thru December this year is the same as during 2018, there will be 205 more burglaries to bring the 2019 final number to 733. It would be the lowest numerical number since 2014 when there were 658 burglaries.

However the more accurate measure of crime — incidents per 1,000 residents — reflects an even deeper drop off. Burglaries per 1,000 residents could end up being 8.6 per 1,000 residents based on today’s population of 9.01 per 1,000 residents in 2014 when the city’s population was at 73,287.

The reason why the crime rate per 1,000 is used by agencies ranging from the FBI to local police departments is simple — raw numbers for crime don’t provide the perspective of an increase in the number of potential victims.

Per 1,000 resident data punches large holes in the argument that crime is increasing as Manteca grows. That said even if you just took raw numbers involving burglaries the last six years has seen less crime on an annual basis than the years between 2011 and 2013. Burglaries peaked in 2011 at 1,101 when Manteca had 15,200 less residents than it does today.

In the January through September comparison between January and September and 2018 of this year:

residential burglaries are down 36.51 percent going from 126 to 80.

auto burglaries are down 2.48 percent going from 363 to 354.

commercial burglaries are down 38.52 percent going from 122 to 75.

other burglaries are down 62.5 percent going from 48 to 18.

The 2018 versus 2017 overall crime numbers showed slight upward trends but when compared against previous years crime per 1,000 residents was either basically flat or down.

On a per 1,000 basis the 2018 crime level was a virtual carbon copy of 2015.

Crime in Manteca peaked in 2011 when the city had 69,246 residents compared to 81,450 residents in 2018. That year there were 15.7 burglaries and 30.2 felonies per 1,000 residents.

The crime rate dropped steadily until 2016 when it went up before dropping back down in 2017 and then inching up in 2018.

To contact Dennis Wyatt, email dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com