South San Joaquin Irrigation District will end irrigation deliveries Oct. 7.
The decision by the SSJID board Tuesday came as virtually every weather model projects the 2022-2023 water year to be determined by the La Nina atmospheric phenomenon.
La Nina conditions typically bring below normal precipitation to most of California and the Southwest.
As such, it means the odds are great that the drought will extend into a fourth year.
The district — thanks to tight conservation practices by its ditch tenders and farmers — was able to meet the water needs to irrigate more than 48,000 acres.
The irrigation season is ending just a little earlier than normal.
Now that the region has weathered the 10-day heat wave that peaked at 115 degrees a week ago, the milder highs that have dropped off by more than 30 degrees this week are helping reduce stress on orchards and vineyards.
SSJID General Manager Peter Reitkerk said the district is still calculating how much carryover they will have in their conservation account at New Melones Reservoir when the weather year ends Sept. 30.
The conservation account provides a buffer of somewhat against next year being dry.
Reitkerk noted the judicious use of water through the fall and winter months will play a key role in helping farmers as well as the cities of Manteca, Tracy, and Lathrop that SSJID serves to weather the drought in 2023 without severe cutbacks if there is a below average year for precipitation.
The three cities have already been asked to curtail surface water deliveries by 20 percent. It is the same proportional cutback that farm customers are under.
The 2.4 million acre foot New Melones Reservoir — the linchpin of water storage for those that depend on the Stanislaus River watershed such as SSJID farmers, Manteca, Lathrop, and Tracy — was at 26 percent of capacity or 626,431 acre feet as of Monday.
More telling, that is just 46 percent of the average storage for the date of Sept. 12. There needs to be 1,087,633 acre feet in storage — or almost half of the reservoir full currently — to reflect normal storage conditions.
To contact Dennis Wyatt, email dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com