New home starts so far this year in Manteca are more than double the pace in 2019 when 533 single family homes were built.
If the trend continues this year could end up surpassing the 2000 mark of 1,074 new home starts that stands as the second highest year on record after 1985 when more than 1,100 new homes being built led to Manteca imposing the San Joaquin Valley’s first growth cap.
The city issued permits to start 52 homes valued collectively at $16.7 million in January. That compares to January of 2019 when 25 new homes were built with a value of $8.1 million.
January building activity is only one sign of how 2020 may turn out
At month’s end there were another 62 single family home permits in review. That means by the end of February the city will have issued 114 permits for homes that have been sold in new subdivisions.
Last year at the end of January there were 28 single family homes in review at City Hall valued at $8.9 million.
Between the two categories there were 53 permits issued or in the process of being reviewed in the first month of 2019 compared to 114 for January of this year.
The actual permits issued and what had already been submitted for review as of Jan. 31 is in addition to 20 permits for master plan houses — the basic footprint for models that builders intend to offer for sale. The master plan approval speeds up the actual approval of permits to build specific homes given as there is a template for approving basic components of homes. The master plan homes were submitted by Meritage Homes, Century Communities, and KB Homes.
Underscoring what the uptick in home construction could mean is that he first two months are typically the slowest for new home sales.
If it pans out and more than 1,000 new homes are started and although most take two or so months to build and won’t all be completed by year’s end, it would push Manteca’s population within a thousand or two of 90,000 residents especially if any of the 364 apartment units that will be under construction this year are ready to be occupied.
Permits have been issued for the 128-unit Woodbridge Apartments immediately east of the Woodbridge Center East anchored by CVS Pharmacy on the northeast corner of Union and Lathrop roads. The complex is also north and east of the water tank along Lathrop Road.
When you combine the 236 apartments in the first phase of the Valencia complex that work has started on along Atherton Drive to the east of Bass Pro Shops with the 128 units at Woodbridge, it will mean 364 apartments will be under construction at the same in Manteca during 2020. That is the largest number of apartment units ever to be built in a single year in Manteca eclipses the 300 Paseo Villa units built in 2006. Valencia has funding secured for all 428 units. It is being built in two phases to make it manageable. The Valencia units are expected to be ready to lease in late 2021.
Manteca is expected to have ended 2019 with right around 85,000 residents when the state Department of Finance estimates are released in May. Based on growth that has been adding 1,500 to 1,800 residents for the past several years, Manteca was on track to reach 95,000 in six years from now at the end of 2025. If the current new home sales pace pans out for 2020 and it continues for the subsequent five years Manteca could be on the cusp of 100,000 residents by Jan. 1, 2026.
While changes in the economy could slow things down, the fact Manteca has a liberal growth cap of 3.9 percent that is tied to sewer allocations, has in excess of 10,000 housing units either approved or in the planning process, and has adequate sewer and water capacity, the Family City is arguably the best situated city to absorb growth that stems for the job-rich and housing challenged Silicon Valley.
Not only does Altamont Corridor Express commuter service go from Manteca to the heart of San Jose but the Diridon Station in that city is directly across from where Google is pursuing a massive 6 million square foot campus with plans to hire 20,000 workers.
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