By allowing ads to appear on this site, you support the local businesses who, in turn, support great journalism.
260,000 BY 2060
Manteca, Lathrop & Ripon population forecast
MANTECA3 6-24-10
There will be a lot of home building in San Joaquin County over the next 44 years. Shown is Mantecas Curran Grove neighborhood. - photo by HIME ROMERO/The Bulletin

More than 260,000 people will call Manteca, Ripon or Lathrop home in 2060 if population forecasts issued by the San Joaquin County Council of Governments materialize.

That’s about 2.5 times as many people that currently reside in the three cities. 

Based on the forecast within 44 years:

uManteca will go from 73,841 residents to 137,202

uLathrop will go from 23,107 to 96,078.

uRipon will go from 15,359 to 30,057.

uEscalon will go from 7,369 to 10,440.

uTracy will go from 88,707 to 168,521.

uMountain House will go from 10,975 to 29,374.

uLodi will go from 65,543 to 111,883.

uStockton will go from 309,919 to 559,598.

uSan Joaquin County will go from 728,644 to 1,323, 236.

They forecast comes just a little over two months after the California Department of Finance reported San Joaquin County was the state’s fastest growing county in 2015 as it grew 1.3 percent  by adding 9,522 residents

Lathrop was the fastest growing city in the county last year with a population of 22,112 by adding 1,443 residents for a 6.3 percent gain. Manteca was the second fastest growing city in both San Joaquin County and the 209 with a 2.3 percent population gain or the addition of 1,672 residents for 73,841 overall.

Stockton added the most residents (2,962) to retain its status as the largest city in the 209 with 315,952 residents. Its growth rate of 0.8 percent matched Modesto which grew by 1,745 residents to 1211,903. Coming in third in pure numerical gain was Manteca as the city added 1,672 residents for a population of 73,841. Manteca is the fifth largest city in the three-county 209 region.

Growth throughout the 209 — and especially in San Joaquin County — is being attributed to the robust Bay Area economy that also has a tight and expensive housing market. Production housing — such as KB Homes — sells for roughly 2.5 times in the Silicon Valley than the same basic floorplan does in the Northern San Joaquin Valley.

There are now 1.54 million residents in the 209. And almost half that population — 770,000 residents — live within a 20 mile radius with Manteca at the epicenter including Modesto to the south with 211,903, Stockton to the north with 315,952, Tracy to the west with 89,208, and Oakdale to the east with 22,590.


To contact Dennis Wyatt, email