Worried about food prices staying high and going even higher?

Forget about the bird flu.

Forget about attempts to merge Kroger and Albertsons.

Forget about tariffs and trade wars.

And forget California fast food workers being paid $20 an hour.

The proverbial elephant in the room that everyone acts doesn’t exist are migrant farmworkers, legal and illegal.

The federal Department of Labor issued 370,000 H-2A visas in 2023 for “guest” agricultural workers.

A third of those owners are in three states: Florida, followed by California and then Georgia.

The Center for Migration Studies -— arguably one of the more even-keeled sources for migrant data — places the number of illegal migrants working in agricultural at 283,000 in 2023.

That is estimated to be 4 percent of the undocumented workforce of roughly 7 million currently in the United States.

Now for the kicker.

It is estimated between 50 and 75 percent of those 283,000 illegal migrants working in agricultural do so in California, primarily in the San Joaquin Valley.

More than half of all fruits and vegetables grown in the United States comes from California.

In addition, so do 99 percent of the nation’s almonds, walnuts, pistachios, and pomegranates.

And just like with illegal migrants working farms, the overwhelming majority of farm production is in the San Joaquin Valley.

That’s right.

In our own backyard — actually it is more like in our yard — is where this nation’s continued lack of a cohesive migration may end up biting Americans big time in the wallet.

Do not misunderstand.

The illegal farmworkers in question aren’t seeking asylum. That means they are not the supposed high priority targets involving those detained and then released into the country while awaiting asylum hearings likely not to take place for three to four years.

There is no specific data but you can probably rest assured the ranks of illegal farm workers in California is not a place you are likely to find violent gang members, rapists, murderers and such.

“Guest workers” have been critical to farming and the first step of food processing in the country since World War II when agriculture started facing acute worker shortages.

The Bracero Program - given its name from the Spanish word for manual labor — started in 1942 and ended in 1964.

Among the things it guaranteed participants was  the minimum federal wage of 30 cents an hour.

There were more than 5 million labor contracts issued over the course of 22 years, primarily to citizens of Mexico.

Two studies indicated the Bracero program did not negatively impact American farmworkers when it came to wages or employment.

The end of the Bracero program, however, accelerated mechanization as the labor pool dried up.

Keep in mind H-2A workers are tracked, meaning there is government oversight that they are being paid minimum wage.

Unlike the concern with H-1B visa workers employed in tech, if they are doing manual farm labor, it’s almost a 100 percent bet there’s not a huge pay difference between American workers in the same jobs.

And there are farm jobs that aren’t nomadic in nature, such as dairies meaning Americans, although not a lot, actually do take jobs on the farm that are basically manual labor

The big question with illegal farmworkers in California is not whether they are taking jobs away from Americans.

Instead, it is whether illegal workers make minimum wage and are treated fairly under California law when it comes to overtime on the farm.

One might take the stance as to why they should care given such farmworkers are here illegally and know the risks.

But you toss the renewed threat of mass deportations into the equation and it will have an impact on farm labor.

Labor shortages can and do lead to crop losses.

Farmers get less to market, prices rise. It’s Supply & Demand 101.

One would hope someone back at this nation’s ground zero when it comes to dysfunction and delusional thinking — the hollow as opposed to hallow halls of Congress — would be taking steps to try and shift illegal farmworkers into the H-2B program,

Food supply security is a national security issue.

For the past 30 years, both sides of the aisle gave staked out all or nothing positions when debating immigration reform.

Most would agree the mass carte blanche asylum of the last four years that brought in the largest influx of migrants in this nation’s history overshot the end of the proverbial runway.

The clamp down, while justified in most quarters, has the potential of severely undermining American farm production given 1 in every 2 necessary workers are here illegally.

Rounding them up and deporting them has the potential of making $8 a dozen eggs something American consumers may one day recall with great fondness.

Congress needs to devise a workable solution to protect the supply of farmworkers now and not later.

It will also mean dealing with the inconvenient truth that 96 percent of the estimated 7 million illegal migrants in this country that are working are doing so at non-farm jobs.

An example of what this means was reflected in lengthy labor investigations against a national chain using contracted labor through a private entity to clean stores.

The federal government proved the corporation was complicit in making it possible for contracting firms to supply labor, most of which consisted of illegal migrates to do janitorial work in stores as non-company employees.

The investigation reached that conclusion by comparing the minimum legal payroll cost for “X” number of workers employed to what the company was paying the contractor overall.

A judge agreed there was no way the contracted firm was paying for what the service would cost them had they hired workers at minimum wage.

The company, which was estimated to have saved millions of dollars over the years, was fined $70,000 and ordered not to enter into contracts with outside vendors where it was clear minimum wages weren’t being paid.

The cost of company lawyers and a $70,000 fee is a small price to pay to save millions.

One doesn’t have to wonder why there isn’t a lot of stomach on either side of the aisle to reform migration.

It would cost their friends dearly in big business, not to mention wealthy big political donors that are able to secure domestic help on the cheap.

This column is the opinion of editor, Dennis Wyatt, and does not necessarily represent the opinions of The Bulletin or 209 Multimedia. He can be reached at dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com