It took the City of Manteca 67 years to reach a population of 32,000 from the time of its incorporation to 1985.
Manteca is now posed to add that many residents in the next 23 years without an increase in the annual growth rate.
Historic and current new home construction trends underscore the importance an updated general plan will play in serving as a guide for Manteca growth through 2040.
The data compiled by DeNova Group — the firm retained by the City Council to oversee the state mandated general plan update — shows at the start of 2017 Manteca had a population of 76,247.
At the same time there were 9,957 housing units either with maps that were pending, entitled, or under application.
Based on the current population yield of 3.16 residents per housing units, those 9,957 envisioned homes that range from traditional single family homes to apartment units would add 31,364 residents if they are all built.
Using the annual population growth since 2010 during which time Manteca has been adding 1,304 new residents a year, by 2040 the city could grow by 30,061 people. That would be the equivalent of Manteca adding the current population of Lathrop and Escalon. That would bring the city’s population to 106,308. By comparison Tracy currently has 83,000 residents.
A Manteca population projection of 106,308 in 2040 could be on the low side. Some models expect Manteca to grow to 124,500 residents by then given the growing pressure on the Northern San Joaquin Valley to fill the housing needs generated by Bay Area jobs as communities west of the Altamont Pass have limited areas where they can add housing.
The 1920 Census conducted two years after Manteca incorporated put the city’s population at 1,286. Manteca has been adding an average of 1,305 residents a year since 2000 or 19 more residents than the city had at its start.
Percentage of single
family homes keeps
growing while shrinking
apartment rental units
As of 2017, 18.9 percent of Manteca’s housing stock was in multiple unit complexes. That is a decrease from 19.2 percent in 2005. The percentage of multiple unit housing stock is likely to continue dropping based upon the composition of the 9,957 pending housing units of which only 7.6 percent are multiple family housing units.
The lack of multiple family housing that tends to have lower monthly housing costs when there is an adequate supply has long been blamed on the South County having a dearth of affordable housing.
Manteca’s 18.9 percent of its existing housing inventory being multiple family home is the second lowest in San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties for cities over 20,000. The only place it is lower is in Tracy were it comes in at 17.56 percent.
Multiple family housing for the United States as a whole is at 31.8 percent, California at 38.0 percent, Stockton at 33.7 percent, and Lodi at 35.2 percent.
Anticipated growth as well as the heavy emphasis on single family homes will have significant impacts on police, fire, traffic, schools, air quality, and the city’s ability to provide government services.
The general plan update being fashioned over the next two years will try to address those impacts and provide broad guidelines on how to address them.
To contact Dennis Wyatt, email firstname.lastname@example.org