The numbers show that the City of Manteca’s enforcement of its emergency drought water use rules is a dismal failure.

The anecdotal evidence — commercial areas irrigating lawns in the middle of steady rain along with a liberal sprinkling of homeowners doing the same — shows widespread ignorance and/or flaunting of the rules.

And state water experts warn despite up to three inches of rain expected to fall today and Thursday in the South County with lighter rain daily through Sunday, California is so deep into drought that Mother Nature is far from breaking the drought’s back.

Manteca in 2022 used 4,821 million gallons of water. That is a 2.4 percent increase from 2021 usage when Manteca consumed 4,708 million gallons of water.

The state — in a bid to avoid mandatory water cutbacks or even rationing — has directed local jurisdictions such as Manteca to cutback water use on a  voluntary basis by 15 percent.

Manteca apparently hasn’t gotten the message

Nor is Manteca alone.

Ripon, as an example in November saw its water use go up 15 percent compared to November 2021.

Perhaps more alarming is Manteca’s water use last month — the wettest month by far of 2022 and much wetter than December of 2021.

Manteca went through 241 million gallons last month. That’s 2.2 percent more water than in December 2021 when 235 million gallons was used.

And even if you accounted for growth that has been running between 2.2 and 2.9 percent in Manteca during the past five years, water use did no better than flatline leaving the city a far cry from the goal of reducing use by 15 percent.

The storms that hit in December did help the drought situation but only slightly.

At the start of November, the 2.4 million acre foot New Melones Reservoir — the linchpin for stored water on the Stanislaus River with direct impacts on Manteca, Lathrop, and Tracy urban users — was at 24 percent capacity.

As of Monday, Jan. 2, it was at 30 percent capacity.

And the wettest stretch in terms of accumulative rainfall  between Dec. 25 and Dec. 31 that caused flooding issues, New Melones Reservoir went from 624,870 acre feet of water to 728,480 acre feet of water.

While It is more than a 15 percent increase, the water storage at New Melones needs to be almost double what it is now to be normal for the date of Jan. 2.

Meteorologists, water management experts,  and climatologists have repeatedly reminded Californians in the past week that last December was exceptionally wet to the point it set snowfall records in many places. It was followed, however, by the driest January, February, and March on record to make the drought even more severe.

As a result, snowpack when from 160 percent of normal in December 2021 to 38 percent of normal on April 1, 2022.

The storm today

and Thursday

The National Weather Service is warning the worst part of the next storm will hit tonight with rain at the heaviest and winds at their worst with gusts reaching 50 mph.

By the early morning hours Thursday the storm’s fury will lighten somewhat but the rain and winds expected primarily in the morning before they start easing it will still classify as a storm with major impacts.

Forecasters warn conditions will be ripe in the Manteca, Stockton, Lathrop, and Ripon areas for:

*Local flooding.

*Falling trees as saturated soil and high winds could wreak havoc in orchards as well as trees in urban settings.

*Difficult driving conditions.

*Blowing branches and other debris.

Snow will fall as low as 3,000 feet on Wednesday before retreating to 6,000 and 7,500 feet late Wednesday and then to 7,500 feet on Thursday.

That could result in rain that could trigger some snow melt.

Rain is expected off and on in the footballs and valley through at least Sunday with snow in the Sierra.

To contact Dennis Wyatt, email dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com