Josh Harder isn’t wild about the idea of redrawing California’s Congressional districts prior to the 2030 Census.

The Congressman made that clear in comments earlier this month after speaking at the groundbreaking for the new Manteca Food-4-Less.

The Tracy Democrat, who represents the 9th Congressional District that includes all of San Joaquin County except Lathrop and rural areas south of Manteca and east and west of Tracy, has some company in that position — the Republican Party of San Joaquin County.

In 2008 and 2010, voters in San Joaquin County and throughout California twice affirmed their desire for an independent commission to draw congressional and legislative maps, not politicians.

The county GOP organization on Thursday criticized Gov. Gavin Newsom’s announcement of a Nov. 4 special election to allow the California Legislature to redraw Congressional districts now held by Republicans to make it easier for Democrats to win in 2026.

They called it “an unnecessary, unconstitutional effort to rig our congressional maps and take away the voices of millions of Californians who chose to have citizens control the redistricting process.”

The SJ County Republican Party statement went on to say, “The people of California have spoken clearly: they want citizens in charge of who represents them, not politicians. . . Gavin Newsom doesn’t agree. In the pursuit of his own personal political objectives, he is seeking to overturn the will of the voters through a process that is rushed, secret, and without transparency or accountability.”

Newsom made his decision in response in attempts to redistrict the Lone Star State to make it easier for Republicans to succeed at picking up five more seats by creating current district seats held by Democrats more favorable for Republicans.

California has 52 Congressional seats. Of those 43 are Democrats, and 9 are Republicans.Reshuffling the deck in California ahead of the 2026 midterms likely means fiddling with the San Joaquin Valley.

All or major swaths of the San Valley are represented by:

*Democrat Josh Harder for the 9th District that includes also all of San Joaquin County minus Lathrop and rural south Manteca and rural south and east Tracy.

*Democrat Jim Costa for the 21st District that has Fresno at its heart.

*Democrat Adam Gray for the 13th District that includes Lathrop as well as rural south Manteca, rural south and east Tracy, and much of the westside of the San Joaquin Valley.

*Republican Tim McClintock for 5th District that includes the bulk of Stanislaus County, much of the eastside of the San Joaquin Valley, and much of the eastern suburbs of Sacramento.

*Republican David Valadao for the 22nd District that includes east Bakersfield plus a large swath of both mid-valley and southwest San Joaquin Valley.

*Republican Vince Fong for the 20th District that includes a large swath of the southeast San Joaquin Valley including much of Bakersfield.

Any shift in the districts now represented by Fong and Valadao to make them more likely to go Democratic would require a northern push.

Ripon, as an example, would be in the mix to go to the 5th District since the most likely target would be to switch out Republican strongholds to the stronger Republican seats.

The 9th District, as it sits, has higher Democratic registration numbers than Republicans as do most Congressional districts in the Golden State. In San Joaquin County, its 41 percent Democrat and 28.4 percent Republican.

But there is a wild card.

And that’s San Joaquin County’s trend in the most recent presidential elections.

The 2024 election marked the first time since 2004 when a Republican presidential candidate has carried San Joaquin County.

That’s when George W. Bush  was at the top of the Republican ticket.

For the last three presidential elections prior to 2024, San Joaquin County has gone Democrat by roughly a 14 percent margin.

*In 2020, Joe Biden 55.61 percent, Trump 41.78 percent.

*In 2016, Hillary Clinton 53.36 percent, Trump 39.18 percent.

*In 2012, Barrack Obama 55.57 percent, Mitt Romney 41.91 percent.

In 2024, Donald Trump claimed 48.92 percent of the San Joaquin County vote compared to 48.03 percent for Kamala Harris.

 It is not too far of a stretch to credit the shift to growth that has brought a lot of independent voters who lean Republican to San Joaquin County.

Harder wins re-election handily because he is a moderate and the Republican candidates for Congress running against him tend not to venture too much into the moderate zone.

The right Republican candidate, if there is one out there, could pose a problem for Harder given  the rapid growth of the southern part of the county.

As such, the Democrats would be remiss not to try and pump up the 9th District to add protection to a seat Republicans consider winnable.

But meddling also represents a danger.

That’s because the 13th District that includes Lathrop was won by Gray by beating the Republican incumbent by 187 votes

Clearly, it would be in the Democrats’ best interests to strengthen their hand in the 13th given Harder was re-elected in the 9th by a 9,001 vote margin over Kevin Lincoln. That could mean pushing some of Harder’s current constituents into Gray’s district.

The national Republican Party has earmarked both Harder’s and Gray’s districts as targeted seats that they have a chance of winning as they are currently drawn.

To contact Dennis Wyatt, email dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com