Manteca during 2023 added more residents — 2,365 — than any other city in the three counties of the Northern San Joaquin Valley.

The 2.7 percent growth rate, half of that of region leader Lathrop at 5.4 percent, gave Manteca 90,917 residents as of Jan. 1.

Manteca likely passed 91,000 four months ago when January ended.

Lathrop gained 1,895 residents last year to bring the city’s population up to 37,033.
At the current rate, Manteca will surpass 100,000 residents by Jan. 1, 2028.

And Manteca — if current growth rates do not change — will catch up and surpass Tracy sometime in 2030 as San Joaquin County’s second largest city.

The numbers are gleaned from the annual state Department of Finance population projections as of Jan. 1 that was recently released.

 The Northern San Joaquin Valley consists of San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Merced counties.

Manteca, prior to the 1970s, was the third largest city in San Joaquin County before being surpassed by Tracy.

Tracy grew by 1,268 people last year for a 1.3 percent growth rate that is almost half of Manteca’s.

If Manteca and Tracy continue to add the same numbers each year, the 1,097 additional residents that Manteca gains will allow the Family City to retake the No. 2 spot in terms of largest cities in the county by population.

Manteca within two years — if current numbers hold — will overtake Merced as the third largest city in the three-county region.

Merced grew by 1.9 percent adding 1,712 residents to put its population at 91,837.

Perhaps even more telling are the five year trends.

Manteca-Lathrop is the fastest growing subregion in the Northern San Joaquin Valley having added 15,740 residents between 2020 and 2024.

That is more than the net gain of all other 20 cities within the Northern San Joaquin Valley.

The five year trends shows:

*Lathrop adding 8,353 residents.

*Manteca adding 7,388 residents.

*Tracy adding 3,650 residents.

*Turlock adding 805 residents, with a  2024 population of 72,078.

*Riverbank adding 186 residents, with a 2014 population of 25,006.

*Ripon losing 167 residents, with a 2024 population of 15,741

*Oakdale losing 687 residents with a 2024 population of 23,008.

*Ceres losing 911 residents with a 2024 population of 49,319.

*Modesto losing 1,218 residents, with a 2024 population of 217,862.

*Stockton losing 3,086 residents, with a 2024 population of 317,204.

The period of dropping population is essentially over.

Last year only one city in the Northern San Joaquin Valley lost population. Dos Palos in Merced County lost 1 resident to drop down to 5,633 people in 2023.

After Manteca with a 2,365 gain and Lathrop with an 1,895 gain; Merced added 1,712, Stockton added 1,519, and Tracy added 1,268.

Population gains in other cities last year were:

*Ripon gaining 15 for a population of 15,741,

*Escalon gaining 5 for a population of 7,249.

*Lodi gaining 328 for a population of 66,492.

*Ceres gaining 284 for a population of 49,319

*Turlock gaining 388 for a population of 71,273.

*Los Banos gaining 119 for a population of 47,419,

*Hughson gaining 162 for a population of 7,711.

 Last year was the first time the combined population of Manteca, Tracy, and Lathrop that have been the three fastest growing cities in San Joaquin County for going on 20 years has surpassed that of Modesto.

Modesto had 217,862 residents in 2023. The three South County cities had a combined 222,559 residents.

To contact Dennis Wyatt, email dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com