Trainaggedon” is coming to a Manteca at an at-grade rail crossing near you.

And it’s not just because ACE passenger service to Merced is on its way.

Nor is it only due to Union Pacific in 2019 putting Manteca on notice they expect to eventually send as many as 135 trains a day through Manteca as compared to the 50 or so we are now enjoying rumbling through 10 crossings on the Fresno line slicing through the heart of Manteca.

It is because of the California’s hardcore green movement’s earthly equivalent of the rapture — high speed rail service.

If everything goes right, as if anything ever does with the high speed rail authority, the launch of  service in less than 10 years will send a number of new trains through Manteca.

They won’t be the sleek electrified bullet trains emblazoned with the blue and gold colors of the California High Speed Rail Authority (CHSRA).

Instead, they will be the familiar burgundy, blue and white colors of the Altamont Corridor Express.

This is supposed to be a “temporary” situation.

But don’t hold your breath.

The end of the line for actual 220 mph train movements to cover most of the 435-mile distance of the originally adopted high speed rail line route per se that is moving toward final environmental clearance is likely to be Merced.

Merced is where high speed riders “initially” will switch to ACE trains to continue their journey to San Francisco - or San Jose or Sacramento.

Given the reality of CHSRA lifeline funding via the greenhouse gas tax credit will be disappearing in 2030, “initially” is a polite substitute for “forever.”

Once the hybrid system CHSRA is working on is completed using switches to conventional trains at both ends of the 177-mile San Joaquin Valley segment, it is highly doubtful the Merced to SF segment via the Pacheco Pass will be built this century, if ever.

That’s because completing actual high speed rail to Anaheim will be less daunting than tunneling though the state’s most notorious earthquake fault — the San Andreas.

You know the one.

It’s the one that scientists note in “geological time” has been moving the North Pacific Plate northward past the North America plate at a rate of 0.04 inches a year.

However, that annual movement since the start of the 20th century has accelerated to between 1.6 and 2.4 inches a year.

Parts of the fault moved 21 feet during the 1906 earthquake.

At minimum, that means CHSRA wants to tunnel across a fault that has the potential to move earth that trains are passing through by 4 feet in 30 years.

But such scientific details mean nothing to the green forces that anointed the original high speed rail fairytale served up to voters in 2008.

That is why the Merced to SF segment via Pacheco Pass will be the last of the three LA to SF segments to be built, if it ever is built.

That assumes that CHSRA can continue to pursue the original alignment when there is a less daunting route — geological and financially — involving a series of shorter tunnels through the Altamont Pass.

That was the alternative route the CHSRA rejected in favor of the Pacheco Pass corridor.

There is also the issue of whether any politician will have the stomach to continue pumping money into what could easily end up as a $2 billion money pit once the initial hybrid service is established between LA and SF.

Now let’s look at the CHSRA ridership projections.

They expect 16.2 million riders a year will board a train somewhere between Bakersfield and San Francisco starting as soon as 2030.

That is the “updated” ridership number for the California High Speed Rail Authority (CHSRA) initial service.

And by 2040 or so, 35 million riders will be going be on trains moving somewhere between Los Angeles and San Francisco.

Assuming you can believe anything the CHSRA projects, those are staggering numbers.

Keep in mind, they are the folks who promised people already would have already been zipping along between San Francisco and Los Angeles four years ago (2020) on a system that would cost $33 billion to build.

That’s based on the myth voters bought in 2008 when they approved $9.9 billion in high speed rail bonds.

Now the Bakersfield to Merced segment won’t be done until 2030 at the earliest and 2033 at the latest.

That segment will now cost $35 billion, of which the state currently has no idea where $7 billion of that will come from.

Connecting SF to LA as originally envisioned is now projected to cost $100 billion.

Back to those “initial” 16.2 million riders of which a large chunk will pass through Manteca heading to the Lathrop Wye just west of Airport Way and Lathrop Road where they could continue on to — or transfer to trains that will go to — San Jose, San Francisco, and Sacramento.

The top allowed speed of trains going through at-grade crossings is 110 mph per the Federal Railroad Administration if certain conditions are met.

And if other conditions are met, they can go faster.

The good news is by the time the hybrid CHSRA service is up and running, the UP line will be double tracked from Merced to Lathrop.

The bad news, is Manteca will still have nine at-grade crossings once the Austin Road one is replaced with an over crossing as part of the new interchange on Highway 99 being built in the next few years.

The silver lining, if you want to call it that, is trains will be de-accelerating as they head into Manteca from the south just 4 miles from the Lathrop Wye.

That said, those heading south from the Lathrop Wye will be accelerating.

Converting the Fresno line through Manteca into trench is too cost prohibitive.

Building even a handful of overpasses or underpasses is also costly and would have significant impacts on existing neighborhoods and commercial areas.

That said, Manteca’s leaders should not wait for fate to unfold.

They need to pursue two solutions at a minimum.

One, is an assurance that trains heading into the Lathrop Wye, or out of it, will move at maximum speeds no faster than they are today.

Given Manteca’s proximity to the Lathrop Wye, this will likely impact scheduling of through CHSRA connector trains little if at all.

The second is the state — since it is unleashing a hybrid model that will be in place for 10 or 20 years, if not “forever”, should fund 100 percent at least one underpass of the Fresno line on a major north-south arterial in Manteca.

And if only one is put in place, the most central and least obtrusive, is likely to be Union Road.

A case, though, could be made for Airport Way.

Even though it is less central, there arguably will be more intensive development along — and feeding into — the Airport Way corridor.

That way, in case of an incident blocking tracks, there will be emergency access for Manteca’s first responders to access the entire city.

While double tracking will eliminate operational issues, it will only make one thing worse — pedestrian versus train fatalities.

There is a serious body count.

In some years it has been as high as three.

And yes, most are suicides or at least to appear to have been.

That said, there is a clear track record of trains stopped for that purpose — and other issues — creating acute problems on city streets that last for hours.

This column is the opinion of editor, Dennis Wyatt, and does not necessarily represent the opinions of The Bulletin or 209 Multimedia. He can be reached at dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com