There is a 3.4-month supply of available resale homes in the Manteca market based on available property on the Multiple Listing Service.
It is a far cry from September 2007 when the available homes bloated to a record high 651 listings. That - based on the monthly closings at the time - translated into a 22.8 month supply of housing in Manteca.
There are currently 268 listings. It would take 3.4 months at the current pace for all of those homes to be bought based on the number of homes that have closed escrow in Manteca during the past 30 days.
The importance of having a market assumption rate six months or less can’t be over emphasized. It reflects a vibrant enough market that downward pressure on prices isn’t happening from excessive inventory. Granted, there are some issues with the so-called “shadow inventory” where banks have taken back homes but haven’t put them up for sale yet. Based on conversations with real estate agents there are some of those in Manteca but not to the degree elsewhere due to the fact sales have been relatively brisk here.
Even though median prices have rebounded $7,000 from $178,000 in 2009 to $185,000 in 2010 on resale homes that have sold in Manteca, there is little expectation they will rise much farther this year.
That is due to loan qualification - and not interest rates - playing a major role in the market.
It is getting more difficult for first-time buyers to qualify for loans while at the same time investors have increased their pace at making all cash offers on homes heading into foreclosure. It makes it more appealing for mortgage holders as they can avoid significant expenses they incur with the mortgage process.
Even so, real estate agents report first-time buyers aren’t being discouraged from trying to take advantage of historically low bargain prices for homes. It is just taking more patience than it was three years ago when the market started to thaw.
It is a far cry from September 2007 when the available homes bloated to a record high 651 listings. That - based on the monthly closings at the time - translated into a 22.8 month supply of housing in Manteca.
There are currently 268 listings. It would take 3.4 months at the current pace for all of those homes to be bought based on the number of homes that have closed escrow in Manteca during the past 30 days.
The importance of having a market assumption rate six months or less can’t be over emphasized. It reflects a vibrant enough market that downward pressure on prices isn’t happening from excessive inventory. Granted, there are some issues with the so-called “shadow inventory” where banks have taken back homes but haven’t put them up for sale yet. Based on conversations with real estate agents there are some of those in Manteca but not to the degree elsewhere due to the fact sales have been relatively brisk here.
Even though median prices have rebounded $7,000 from $178,000 in 2009 to $185,000 in 2010 on resale homes that have sold in Manteca, there is little expectation they will rise much farther this year.
That is due to loan qualification - and not interest rates - playing a major role in the market.
It is getting more difficult for first-time buyers to qualify for loans while at the same time investors have increased their pace at making all cash offers on homes heading into foreclosure. It makes it more appealing for mortgage holders as they can avoid significant expenses they incur with the mortgage process.
Even so, real estate agents report first-time buyers aren’t being discouraged from trying to take advantage of historically low bargain prices for homes. It is just taking more patience than it was three years ago when the market started to thaw.
