By allowing ads to appear on this site, you support the local businesses who, in turn, support great journalism.
Study justifying blowing the doors off growth to allowing city of 206,368 at odds with staff’s Measure Z assertions
tax logo

Manteca — based on what financial experts hired by the city to analyze the economic impacts of the City Council’s preferred land use general plan update that would make it possible for the city to swell to 206,368 people — contends city hall should be adding to its general fund revenue surplus at the rate of $5.8 million a year.

But judging by claims the city made leading up to the November 2020 election when voters rejected Measure Z to increase sales tax by a full penny that is not what is happening.

While that assertion may be dismissed as being clouded by the sloppy or incomplete bookkeeping uncovered in the finance department, it doesn’t square with the BAE Urban Economic analysis being used to justify land use that would make it possible to add another 117,000 residents to Manteca.

The BAE analysts assert development in place regardless of when it was built generates general fund revenues of $22,088,865 a year against general fund expenditures for everything from police and fire to administration of $13,388,249 annually.

That creates a net annual fiscal surplus of $8,700,616.

The firm then allows for an annual $2.6 million increase in general fund expenditures and a $220,914 transfer into capital facilities reserves. That leaves an adjusted annual fiscal surplus of $5,802,052.

The BAE document the City Council is using to contend growing up to 206,368 residents won’t hurt existing residents and will pay its way projects at complete buildout the city’s general fund will have $86,855,364 in general fund revenues against $57,240,486 in expenses.

That would create an annual general fund fiscal surplus of $29,603,877.

Once you take away a 20 percent annual increase in expenditures that fiscal experts contend will make up for previous general fund shortfalls plus a $944,750 annual transfer to capital  fund reserves, the city will be taking in a fiscal surplus each and every year of $17,211,030.

The bottom line is found on page 22 of the economic analysis.


Manteca would only have

2 more fire stations to

serve city of 216,368

It is predicated the future general fund expenditures to serve growth would be $422 per resident as opposed to the current $62.

The analysis states “key to achieving these reduced expenditures will be to limit the need to expand the city’s fire department beyond the need for staffing two more fire stations, and to limit increase in expenditures for general fund functions aside from police, fire, parks, recreation, and community services.”

It further stresses “the magnitude of these surpluses is dependent upon realization of substantial levels of growth that will likely be possible only over the very long-term” and through economics of scale.

In other words, the city is essentially addicted to growth in terms of supporting general fund services and the public sector jobs that creates.

Based on the BAE study it now costs the city of Manteca on a per person basis for each and every one of its 89,862 individuals served based on the 2018 population and half of the private sector workforce within city limits:

*$228.11 per person served for police services.

*$28.53 per person served for fire services.

*$92.01 per person served for general government including legal services, city clerk, city administration, public works administration, Human Resources, fleet maintenance, facilities, maintenance and non-departmental costs.

*$14.34 per person served for fiscal and revenue management.

*69.75 per person served for parks, recreation, and community services.

*$1.11 per person served for roads.

*$4.86 per person served for animal services.

*$8.90 per person served for transfers out of general fund such as for capital facilities reserves.


To contact Dennis Wyatt, email