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RIPPLE EFFECT OF AI TECH BOOM FELT IN MANTECA HOUSING COSTS
From $2,250 room without a closet rents in San Francisco to median home price of $1.98M across the Silicon Valley
Dhillon Villas
A bedroom at Dhillon Villas Luxury Apartments on Lathrop Road in North Manteca where a one bedroom, one bathroom unit is $2,199 a month.

The highest priced one bedroom, one bathroom apartment in Manteca today is at Dhillon Villas on Lathrop Road just west of Union Road and across the street from Raley’s.

The rent will cost you $2,199 a month for 868 square feet.

It comes with all the bells and whistles one would expect for a complex in Manteca that has the words “luxury apartments” in its name including in-unit washer and dryer.

Amenities at the new 136-unit complex include swimming pool, fitness center, and more. There is an assigned carport, of course, plus the fact getting in and out of the complex is made easier by a traffic signal at the driveway with Lathrop Road.

Contrast that with what renting a bedroom with just over 100 square feet in San Francisco with just one window the size of one you’d find in a bathroom and no closet. You get a shared kitchen, no laundry, and — if you have a car — good luck finding a parking space within three or four blocks.

All of that for $2,250 a month, or $51 more than the Dhillon Villas unit.

Now for the kicker.

Dhillon Villas are offering those that sign a 12-month lease for their apartments a month of free rent plus three months of free internet.

Renters in San Francisco are lucky if the asking price is all they pay.

The Wall Street Journal followed renters on the hunt in San Francisco for rooms to rent last month.

Four renters were going in as roommates at an open house for a four bedroom house listing at $7,800 a month.

The “bidding” started at $8,000 a month with 10 different people — or groups of people — competing to rent the house.

The bidding stopped at $10,000 a month. One of the four roommates got the only bedroom that had no closet and a minuscule window for $2,250 a month.

The artificial intelligence tech boom has sent the median rent for the San Francisco Bay region from the Peninsula to the Tri-Valley to $3,728 a month.

It reflects average rent increases of 18 percent over the past two years.

The San Francisco area has once again bumped the New York City area out of the top spot when it comes to the most expensive metropolitan regions in the United States when it comes to rent.

Now head down to San Jose.

The seventh annual 2026 Silicon Valley Pain Index report was released last month by the Human Rights Institute at San Jose State University.

It’s bottom line: San Jose is now officially the least affordable city on the planet when it comes to the ability to buy a home.

It uses a matrix of household wealth — both liquid and investable — spread across the population and ties it into median prices for homes sold.

In 2025, the San Jose median single-family home closing escrow was $1.98 million.

Compare that to $660,000 in Manteca.

Statewide, the median was $800,000 or $1.1 million less than the Silicon Valley median.

Real estate agents as well as economists, developers, lenders for apartment projects and other housing, as well as home builders understand why such trends matter to Manteca and nearby communities such as Tracy, Lathrop, Ripon, Mountain House, and Stockton.

And that data is underscored by the growing number of supercommuters who travel one way for at least 90 minutes - with most crossing the Altamont Pass.

Based on Census data, San Joaquin County is home to the largest number of supercommuters in the United States in terms of percentage of the workforce.

In Manteca that percentage is at 12.6 percent. Toss in long-range commuters of 60 minute commutes in one direction and Manteca’s percent jumps to 25 percent.

The supercommuter percentage for Lathrop is 17.6, Mountain House is 17, Tracy is 13.8, Stockton is 9.2, and Ripon is 4.3.

The long-haul commuter percentage for Mountain House is 35.4, Lathrop is 33.9, Tracy is 32.6, Stockton is 16.5, and Ripon is 13.6.

South County is growing

affordable housing option

It may not seem like it to those in households that have never relied on Bay Area paychecks, but Manteca and nearby communities are providers of affordable housing.

Families buying new homes for $700,000 to $900,000 in Manteca and River Islands at Lathrop cannot afford to buy homes near cities they work in west of the Altamont Pass.

The same dynamic applies to house renters and apartment renters.

Not only is the average rent in San Jose for an apartment in $3,326 a month compared to $2,107 in Manteca, but renters can get newer and more up-to-date apartments complete with amenities for less money.

There are added bonuses such as less crime, better access to schools, and lifestyle options that are less urban with a heavy single/couple tilt.

With apartments, unlike housing, it is easier to “rent up” even factoring in commute costs.

Clearly, there is not a dollar to dollar impact.

Housing prices go up in a ripple effect manner with those near the epicenter bumped the next highest with the scale of the impact dissipating the farther you go from San Jose or San Francisco.

What happens is higher paid tech workers push out those making less in the housing market forcing a ripple effect that spills over into the Northern San Joaquin Valley.

Someone landing a high paying AI gig in San Francisco eventually displace renters with pay that is significantly higher on this side of the Altamont. Those renters then head east eventually displacing others as rents rise.

That is why in the last 15 years, more and more renters in Manteca and Tracy are coming from the Bay Area.

And new apartment complexes, not to be dependent on that ripple effect to fill units, are building more two bedroom and two bathroom offerings.

Tracking by banks such as Wells Fargo that underwrite apartment projects in the region see a clear trend where the two bedroom, two bathroom units are an affordable option with individuals or related or in a relationship leasing an apartment together and sharing common areas.

Based on rents at The Atherton next to Bass Pro Shops in Manteca, the 2-2 combo would cost two such renters $1,300 a month as opposed to a single renter paying $2,145 for a single bedroom and single bathroom unit or $1,995 for a studio.

To contact Dennis Wyatt, email dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com