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70,000 Mantecans in 2011
Population still growing despite foreclosures
A housing start cap based on sewer allocation has helped keep a lid on growth in Manteca since 1988. - photo by HIME ROMERO/ The Bulletin
Empty homes in foreclosure means Manteca is suffering a net loss in population, right? Wrong.

Manteca gained 1,258 residents in 2009 based on state Department of Finance estimates despite that being the highest year ever for foreclosures with more 1,100 taken back by the banks. That’s because the 1,211 sales of existing homes sold in Manteca that year consisted primarily of foreclosures being `purchased plus 304 families bought new homes built in Manteca during 2009.

Manteca’s population on Jan. 1, 2010 was placed at 68,447 residents by the Department of Finance.

Backing up the state estimates was a gain of almost 130 students district wide by the Manteca Unified School District at the start of the current school year. Overall enrollment at campuses in Manteca, Lathrop, Weston Ranch, and French Camp was pegged at 23,400.

The  gain for 2010 should come close to mirroring last year as developers are on pace to sell more than 300 new homes this year as well and the existing home sales consisting primarily of foreclosures are expected to reach 1,150 by Dec. 31.

That would put Manteca on track to hit 70,000 residents sometime in 2011.

When that happens Manteca’s population will have doubled in 23 years. The year 1988 was when Manteca enacted the Northern San Joaquin Valley’s first ever growth cap limited housing starts based on sewer allocations to 3.9 percent annually.

Manteca’s real growth spurt, though, was between 1972 and 1988 when the population took just 16 years to double. It is that growth that prompted the move to restrict annual housing caps via sewer allocations.

Other population estimates for San Joaquin County jurisdictions as of Jan. 1, 2010 by the Department of Finance are as follows:

• Lathrop, 17,969 residents up from 10,455 in 2000.

• Ripon, 15,468 residents up from 10,158 in 2000.

• Tracy, 82,107 residents, up from 56,929 in 2000.

• Lodi, 63,549 residents up from 57,011 in 2000.

• Stockton, 292,133 residents, up from 243,771 in 2000.

• Non-city areas of San Joaquin County, 147,035 residents, up from 130,066 in 2000.

• San Joaquin County overall, 694,293 residents, up from 563,598 in 2000.

The San Joaquin Council of Governments projects Manteca will reach 75.653 residents by 2015, 85,605 by 2020, 96,607 by 2025, and 108,719 by 2030.

The same SJCOG study based Manteca’s growth projections on anticipations that San Joaquin County by 2035 will have more residents than the current population of seven states and could at the same time still have a larger agricultural production as well.

The Ebhardt School of Business Forecasting Center projects the county will reach a million residents by 2035. That compares to today’s projected population of 681,000.

Projections and observations made in the University of Pacific study on the county’s population include:

• the Hispanic population will increase by 92 percent and the white population will decline by 8 percent by 2035.

• Hispanic and Asian ethnic groups are expected to account for 304,000 of the 318,600 net gain in population over the next 25 years.

• San Joaquin County will remain “remarkably diverse” as the white population is projected to remain substantial and the fast-growing Hispanic population will still fall short of a majority of the county’s population in 2035.

• average annual population growth is expected to be 1.66 percent between 2010 and 2020 and 1.58 percent between 2020 and 2030. That compares to 1.84 percent between 2000 and 2010.

 • in-migration from the Bay Area decreased by more than 50 percent between 2004 and 2008.