If you want an idea of what the general plan update could mean if all of the proposed land use colored on maps is actually developed, the numbers are tucked into the fiscal analysis.

The study by BAE Urban Economics notes the preferred general plan land use at full buildout coupled with projects already in the approval pipeline would:

*Add 36,650 more housing units including 26,654 single-family homes. Based on typical yields and the city’s current population of 87,000 it would put Manteca at right about 200,000 people.

*19.2 million more square feet of distribution centers. That’s roughly 35 additional buildings the size of the 550,000-square-foot Ford Small Parts West Coast distribution center on Spreckels Avenue.

*11.1 million more square feet of commercial space. That’s about the same area as 80 buildings the size of the 140,000-square foot Manteca Costco.

*5 million square feet of additional office space. Based on a 125,000-square-foot floorplan, that’s the same space of 20 Manteca Target stores

At 200,000 residents Manteca at build out would be about the same size of Glendale — currently California’s 23rd largest city at 199,223 residents. It would also mean Manteca would have 15,000 less residents than today’s Modesto.

The numbers that are presented front and center in the financial analysis give you a focused sense of where Manteca’s planning is headed compared to the draft general plan update that by the state preferred format tends to bury such numbers.

The draft general plan along with the draft environmental impact report and the fiscal analysis will be reviewed during a joint meeting of the Manteca City Council and Manteca Planning Commission at 6 p.m. on Tuesday, April 27, at 7 p.m.

The meeting is posted as a general plan workshop. Limited capacity will be available at the council chambers at 1001 West Center Street due to COVID-19 protocols. The meeting will be livestreamed on the city’s website and via Comcast Channel 97.

At full-buildout the fiscal analysis projects property tax and sales tax the city will receive from all new households as well as property taxes from commercial, office, and industrial development will be $86.8 million. The additional services such growth would require are pegged at $57.2 million in increased general fund expenditures. General fund services such as fire and police that account for 62 cents of every dollar spent. If all goes according to plan, the city would have a net annual general fund surplus of $29.6 million from growth.

That $29.6 million annual surplus, according to BAE, would allow a 20 percent increase in expenditures to cover existing general fund deficiencies created by past growth — and current growth — not paying its way. They also set aside $944,750 for capital facilities reserves. That would reduce the fiscal surplus from growth each year at building to $17,211,900.

The BAE fiscal analysis indicates that the Manteca General Fund would:

*Benefit from the continued expansion of the City’s residential and non-residential land use sectors.

* A series of “sensitivity analyses for key variables” found that even with conservative estimates of reduced residential property values or severely reduced non-residential development, the City would still expect fiscal surpluses at General Plan buildout.

*Enhancing service levels from those reflected in the current City budget also would continue to produce projections of net annual fiscal surpluses.

*Results indicate that if the City continues to grow and realizes economies of scale and other efficiencies of service provision that are embedded in the fiscal model, projected fiscal surpluses could provide the City with new financial resources that could be used to enhance service and/or make other strategic investments in the community.

Growth could be used to

dig Manteca out of its

reported financial hole

If Manteca did not grow beyond existing development projects that have been approved but not built or are currently at various stages in the approval pipeline, Manteca would add 9,586 housing units including 7,291 single family homes

That would generate more than 27,000 residents to push the city’s population to 114,000.

Even with just the exiting housing as well as commercial, industrial, and office projects in the approvalprocess, BAE contends with 20 percent of new growth revenues going to cover existing deficits in what growth has generated in terms of negative impacts on city services and budgets, there would be an adjusted annual $5,802,502 annual general fund surplus.

In short, that means the city could rely on growth to dig itself out of its financial quagmire.

During previous general plan updates city officials at the time dismissed concerns of significant growth coming to Manteca as being 30 to 40 years down the road. In reality it has been coming at roughly a 50 percent faster pace.

That means anyone dismissing the growth project in in the current update would be doing so to soften objections to what is referred to as the “preferred land use plan.”

It is correct growth won’t happen overnight. But at the same time if land use allows for growth it is likely to eventually happen in Manteca’s case. That’s based on the track record of the last 50 years when Manteca’s population has increased roughly 550 percent going from 13,845 in 1970 to 87,000 today as well as regional growth patterns.

How to comment

during workshop

There are four other ways for the public to make comments and have them included as part of the record.

*The first is in person. The Council Chambers will be open with limited capacity. Masks are required to be worn at all times. Social distancing will be practiced.

*Call or log into the Zoom Webinar (Meeting ID: 823 4033 5130 — Phone number: (669) 900-6833). To speak during an item you must use the Raise Your Hand feature. If dialing in, press *9 to Raise               Your Hand. Please remain muted until called upon. If you have questions on the Zoom Webinar process, please email: mayorcouncilclerk@ci.manteca.ca.us or call (209) 456-8010.

*Use the first is eComment where you call up the agenda on the city’s website. New users will need to follow instructions to make an account. The comments are made by going down the agenda on the website and clicking on the eComment icon. Only one comment is allowed per agenda items of up to 500 characters. Any eComment can be at any time up to the item being heard by the council.

*Emailing a comment to mayorcouncilclerk@ci.manteca.ca.us up until two hours before the meeting. Comments 250 words and under will be read into the record while those over 250 words will be made a part of the official record but not publically read. Copies of the email comments over 250 words will be provided to council members.

*Mail comments to the City Clerk’s office at 1001 W. Center St, Ste. B, Manteca, CA, 95337 that is received up to two hours before the meeting start. The same email word rules apply.

*Hand delivered comments to the city clerk’s door drop slot no later than two hours prior to the meeting. The same email world rules apply.

Comment period on draft

general plan underway

The draft general plan review period is now underway. It closes on Thursday, May 6. The General Plan and EIR can be viewed on the city’s website at: https://manteca.generalplan.org/content/documents. Submit written responses by 5 p.m. on Thursday, May 6, to J.D. Hightower, Deputy Director, at the address above or by email at jhightower@ci.manteca.ca.us

For more information contact the Development Services Department, 1512 W. Center Street, Suite 201, Manteca, CA 95337. Phone: (209) 456-8500. Fax: (209) 923-8949. 

To contact Dennis Wyatt, email dwyatt@mantcabulletin.com