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1,073 more homes proposed as growth drives Manteca's future
PERSPECTIVE
lovelace
There are 763 homes now being proposed on Lovelace Road west of Union Road in north Manteca.

Want to see Manteca's future?

No need for a crystal ball.

Just take a little trip

First head up north on Union Road.

Go beyond where they are preparing to build the city’s second Dutch Bros past Lathrop Road.

By this time next year, work could also be done on the city’s third Dutch Bros at Airport Way and Atherton Drive.

No apologizes for digressing.

It’s because I’m not.

Dutch Bros is part the future.

So are 7-Elevens, the 2020s versions of the 1920s corner store.

And, because Manteca is growing at a steady 2.5 to 3 percent clip closing in on 100,000 residents and beyond, the city will be getting a lot of other brick and mortar affairs from restaurants to supermarkets that everyone seemingly has been clamoring for.

Once you pass Three Rivers Indian Lodge, a residential recovery program for Native American Indians dealing with substance abuse, you will be near your destination.

It is a left turn onto Lovelace Road.

This mile stretch of country road transitions from both sides being flanked by almond orchards to ending at traffic signals on Airport Way featuring an Amazon fulfillment center.

Along the way you will pass the Lovelace Transfer Station, a nice moniker for where they sort through trash to separate garbage from recyclables.

The San Joaquin County budget for next year includes funding for a new building to do the “transferring” in.

That won’t be the only building going on along Lovelace in the near future.

Last month, developers submitted plans to build 763 homes on parcels bordering the road.

Now let’s head south on Main Street.

Go across the 120 Bypass.

Head past the 1,301-home Griffin Park project now being built.

As you pass the end of the sound wall on the right you will notice a road way in place. It’s a segment of Raymus Parkway.

This is where Manteca’s first two-lane roundabout tying together two four-lane roads will be built soon.

Just past that a ways is Sedan Avenue. Turn left.

Almond trees are on the right.

And on the left is a parcel where developers last month submitted plans for 310 homes.

Manteca now has 13,000 plus housing units, apartments included, in the “development pipeline.”

That’s short hand for everything that is under construction, has been approved and has secured entitlements, and projects being proposed.

These are not fantasies.

People are putting real money on the line.

One can easily consume $500,000 plus on engineering and environmental review documents even on a smaller development of a hundred homes or so.

You also need to tie up land, which is not a cheap endeavor.

But you’d think with 13,000 housing units in the pipeline, it’s got to end sometime.

That’s inevitable. But it isn’t going to be anytime soon.

Manteca is now a hot spot for national builders as well as regional and local builders.

That means subdivisions with entitlements in place in a growing area are a hot commodity with national corporations with deep pockets.

The 3.9 percent growth cap with 600 to 700 housing permits being issued a year isn’t even close to being hit.

Right now, based on annual calculations of housing stock in place, Manteca won’t reach the cap until almost 1,100 homes are built in a year.

And when you add another 1,100 homes, that means 1,144 can be built the next year. The raw number that cap represents keeps growing as more homes are built.

Manteca could — if the growth pedal accelerated to the point it was floored — could go through almost all of the 13,000 homes on the table within a decade.

It’s not likely to happen but it is plausible.

And it is definitely more plausible than expecting growth to drop off any time soon.

Manteca is not alone.

Tracy, Lathrop, and Mountain House are all feeding off the same Bay Area dynamics.

That said, there are differences.

Lathrop eventually will be boxed in.

That’s because the cards are stacked against Lathrop crossing the San Joaquin River again to urbanize another Delta island as Cambay Group is doing with Stewart Tract, aka River Islands.

Mountain House has a water source problem that will ultimately limit growth.

Manteca made some crucial decisions, and investments, years ago that provided for two essential elements in a manner that is a tad more advantageous to the positron Tracy’s is in.

Those elements are the ability to add toilets and water faucets.

The last major investment 20 plus years ago in the wastewater treatment facility created a plant that was designed for future expansion.

Some developers at the time didn’t like it because it cost more money to build. In retrospect, it was an insurance policy for developers’ future.

Do not misunderstand.

The wastewater treatment plant will still need to be expanded in 10 years or so but it can be done with connection fees charged growth.

 As for water, based on current consumption patterns and the contractual water the city has tied up in the future second phase of South San Joaquin Surface Water Treatment Plant, Manteca has enough water sources to double its current 91,000 population.

And in case you think there is a wild card out there via a push to stop or slow down growth as Tracy did almost 20 years ago, Sacramento has changed the rules. 

Law changes aimed at increasing the state's housing stock makes blocking a development from going forward impossible unless a jurisdiction can't provide basics like water and sewer service.

Plans submitted last month for 1,073 more homes in the city makes it clear growth is in Manteca's foreseeable future.

 

 

This column is the opinion of editor, Dennis Wyatt, and does not necessarily represent the opinions of The Bulletin or 209 Multimedia. He can be reached at dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com

 

 Want to see Manteca's future?

No need for a crystal ball.

Just take a little trip

First head up north on Union Road.

Go beyond where they are preparing to build the city’s second Dutch Bros past Lathrop Road.

By this time next year, work could also be done on the city’s third Dutch Bros at Airport Way and Atherton Drive.

No apologizes for digressing.

It’s because I’m not.

Dutch Bros is part the future.

So are 7-Elevens, the 2020s versions of the 1920s corner store.

And, because Manteca is growing at a steady 2.5 to 3 percent clip closing in on 100,000 residents and beyond, the city will be getting a lot of other brick and mortar affairs from restaurants to supermarkets that everyone seemingly has been clamoring for.

Once you pass Three Rivers Indian Lodge, a residential recovery program for Native American Indians dealing with substance abuse, you will be near your destination.

It is a left turn onto Lovelace Road.

This mile stretch of country road transitions from both sides being flanked by almond orchards to ending at traffic signals on Airport Way featuring an Amazon fulfillment center.

Along the way you will pass the Lovelace Transfer Station, a nice moniker for where they sort through trash to separate garbage from recyclables.

The San Joaquin County budget for next year includes funding for a new building to do the “transferring” in.

That won’t be the only building going on along Lovelace in the near future.

Last month, developers submitted plans to build 763 homes on parcels bordering the road.

Now let’s head south on Main Street.

Go across the 120 Bypass.

Head past the 1,301-home Griffin Park project now being built.

As you pass the end of the sound wall on the right you will notice a road way in place. It’s a segment of Raymus Parkway.

This is where Manteca’s first two-lane roundabout tying together two four-lane roads will be built soon.

Just past that a ways is Sedan Avenue. Turn left.

Almond trees are on the right.

And on the left is a parcel where developers last month submitted plans for 310 homes.

Manteca now has 13,000 plus housing units, apartments included, in the “development pipeline.”

That’s short hand for everything that is under construction, has been approved and has secured entitlements, and projects being proposed.

These are not fantasies.

People are putting real money on the line.

One can easily consume $500,000 plus on engineering and environmental review documents even on a smaller development of a hundred homes or so.

You also need to tie up land, which is not a cheap endeavor.

But you’d think with 13,000 housing units in the pipeline, it’s got to end sometime.

That’s inevitable. But it isn’t going to be anytime soon.

Manteca is now a hot spot for national builders as well as regional and local builders.

That means subdivisions with entitlements in place in a growing area are a hot commodity with national corporations with deep pockets.

The 3.9 percent growth cap with 600 to 700 housing permits being issued a year isn’t even close to being hit.

Right now, based on annual calculations of housing stock in place, Manteca won’t reach the cap until almost 1,100 homes are built in a year.

And when you add another 1,100 homes, that means 1,144 can be built the next year. The raw number that cap represents keeps growing as more homes are built.

Manteca could — if the growth pedal accelerated to the point it was floored — could go through almost all of the 13,000 homes on the table within a decade.

It’s not likely to happen but it is plausible.

And it is definitely more plausible than expecting growth to drop off any time soon.

Manteca is not alone.

Tracy, Lathrop, and Mountain House are all feeding off the same Bay Area dynamics.

That said, there are differences.

Lathrop eventually will be boxed in.

That’s because the cards are stacked against Lathrop crossing the San Joaquin River again to urbanize another Delta island as Cambay Group is doing with Stewart Tract, aka River Islands.

Mountain House has a water source problem that will ultimately limit growth.

Manteca made some crucial decisions, and investments, years ago that provided for two essential elements in a manner that is a tad more advantageous to the positron Tracy’s is in.

Those elements are the ability to add toilets and water faucets.

The last major investment 20 plus years ago in the wastewater treatment facility created a plant that was designed for future expansion.

Some developers at the time didn’t like it because it cost more money to build. In retrospect, it was an insurance policy for developers’ future.

Do not misunderstand.

The wastewater treatment plant will still need to be expanded in 10 years or so but it can be done with connection fees charged growth.

 As for water, based on current consumption patterns and the contractual water the city has tied up in the future second phase of South San Joaquin Surface Water Treatment Plant, Manteca has enough water sources to double its current 91,000 population.

And in case you think there is a wild card out there via a push to stop or slow down growth as Tracy did almost 20 years ago, Sacramento has changed the rules. 

Law changes aimed at increasing the state's housing stock makes blocking a development from going forward impossible unless a jurisdiction can't provide basics like water and sewer service.

Plans submitted last month for 1,073 more homes in the city makes it clear growth is in Manteca's foreseeable future.

 

 

This column is the opinion of editor, Dennis Wyatt, and does not necessarily represent the opinions of The Bulletin or 209 Multimedia. He can be reached at dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com