Live long enough in Manteca and you understand something that all the models the city’s go-to traffic consultant — Fehr & Peers — doesn’t take into account.

Virtually every new home built in Manteca has at least one breadwinner who heads west down the 120 Bypass to reach jobs in Tracy or west of the Altamont Pass.

You also will realize East Highway 120 through Manteca is overloaded during commute hours as well as Friday evening and Sunday afternoon as people from the Bays Area go to and from the Sierra.

On Sunday afternoons it is common for traffic to back up past where the two westbound lanes after Jack Tone Road funnel down to one lane

As an added bonus the biggest jam in Manteca on a  daily basis can be found west of the East Highway 120-East Yosemite Avenue/Highway 99 interchange.

That is where Fehr & Peers gave their stamp of approval to build a major disruptor of traffic flow known as Chick-fil-A.

It should be noted Chick-fil-A having traffic impacts that did not follow traffic models elsewhere was a well-established fact. But that did not faze the experts at Fehr & Peers who see no evil with development that fattens their bottom line.
The latest atrocity that Fehr & Peers has blessed as “less than significant” in terms of its impact on nearby roads is the 814 homes an out-of-town developer wants to drop along Austin Road between Highway 99 and East Highway 120.

It is a project at build out that will generate 7,741 daily vehicle trips.

Given new homebuyers today in Manteca almost all have Bay Area jobs, the future residents have to get to work.

Yosemite Square happens to be right on top of the Austin Road interchange.

Problem solved, right?

Wrong.

Caltrans has made it very clear the northbound onramp and southbound offramp at Austin Road are coming out next year.

That’s because the Austin Road overcrossing needs to be torn down to construct the number of lanes necessary on Highway 99 to make the three-phase redo of the 120 Bypass/Highway 99 interchange work.

The ramps won’t be replaced until the third phase of the $154 million project. Caltrans believes that will be at least 10 years. Given funding challenges that is bureaucratic lingo for 20 years, if you’re lucky.

That means there will only be one “official” way for Yosemite Square to get to and from  work — taking Auston Road to East Yosemite/East Highway 120 to Highway 99 to reach the 120 Bypass that they will be able to see from the second story of their home.

Of course, there is the “real bypass” that commuters have found by taking Airport Way across the San Joaquín River. More about that in a second.

The commuters from Yosemite Square could also drive through Manteca neighborhoods south of the 120 Bypass to reach the freeway and/or shopping.

Even though it is longer than going East Yosemite Avenue, going two to three miles out of their way during peak commute hours would be a real time saver.

Yosemite Square has the potential of making the countryside south of Manteca more unlivable once the new Austin Road overcrossing minus half of the needed ramps is in place.

That’s because it will have a clear shot over Highway 99, Moffat Boulevard and the railroad tracks to reach the “real” South County bypass.

One must take a drive south of Manteca to find the “real bypass “of Highway 120.

Its feeder roads are Airport Way and Main Street from Manteca as well as West Ripon Road from Ripon.

Except for traffic that originates along the Airport, the other traffic funnels onto South Manteca Road and makes it way to Airport Way via Trahern Road.

The bypass route then uses Airport Way to cross the San Joaquin River.

Once across the river the road turns into Durham Ferry just before you reach Jimmy’s One Stop.

Pull into the parking lot of Jimmy’s One Stop and you can see the growing commuter traffic during the mornings and afternoons.

Those turning north on Kasson Road are heading toward 11th Street  as well as Grantline Road to access the ever expanding employment centers anchored by a cluster of Amazon distribution centers on Tracy’s east side.

Go south on Kasson and you can reach Highway 132 to connect with Interstate 580 to head over the Altamont Pass into the job rich Bay Area and bypass the bumper-to-bumper 15 mph mess that is Interstate 205 on a growing basis.

Those that stick to Durham Ferry Road access employment centers on Tracy’s western flank or else access Interstate 580 at a point farther north.

It is a tossup whether it is quicker going south on Kasson to Highway 132 and back tracking to I-580 by bypassing the more direct route through New Jerusalem that has the nuance of stop signs.

With each passing month traffic picks up on Airport Way —  the only other crossing of the San Joaquin River south of Stockton to head toward the Bay Area between Highway 132 and the 120 Bypass from Manteca, Ripon, the foothills and Modesto/Stanislaus County

Yes, Interstate 5 crosses the river where the 120 Bypass meets up with it. But both feed into Interstate 205 within a mile making it essentially one route to the Bay Area.

And, yes, River Islands Parkway that you can reach from Louise Avenue crosses the San Joaquin River but it is hardly an alternative given the surface streets one must maneuver and the developers of River Islands making it a chore to use as a short cut

That said, there are a growing number of Stockton — and likely even Lathrop and east Manteca commuters — who are using the circuitous route thru River Islands to get off of I-5 and join I-205 to avoid the 1-205/120 Bypass/I-5 clog.

If you’ve never been caught up in the daily traffic mess, all of this might sound like gibberish.

But to someone who understands the real consequences of the city approving Yosemite Square and 814 homes that would force residents either into a  traffic tourniquet between Austin Road and Highway 99 on East Yosemite Avenue or send them racing through the countryside  to cross the San Joaquin River at Airport Way they see a traffic disaster in the making.

Fehr & Peers is giving their blessing to a project that will make the Chick-fil-A debacle they signed off on as traffic consultant look like smart traffic planning.

This column is the opinion of editor, Dennis Wyatt, and does not necessarily represent the opinions of The Bulletin or 209 Multimedia. He can be reached at dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com