Announcer Gary Owens of “Rowan & Martin’s Laugh-In” would utter the words “live from beautiful downtown Burbank” at the start of the comedy show that premiered in 1968.

What brings this up is something — to borrow a signature phrase from Artie Johnson’s German solider Wolfgang character from the same show — “verrry interesting.”

Manteca at the end of 2030 could possibly end up being California’s 69th largest city in population after Burbank that today has 106,229 residents.

That assumes the continuation of current numeric population gains coupled with stagnant and even negative growth among the cities in California between 95,000 and 105,000 counting over the next five years.

It would mean an annual population growth of 1,560 new residents in Manteca to go from 96,551 at the end of 2025 to 105,351 by the end of 2030.

Along the way Manteca is on pace to surpass the population of cities such as Jurupa Valley, San Mateo, Vista, Norwalk, Daly City, and others.

The latest state Department of Finance population data has Manteca as California’s 81st largest city as of Jan. 1, 2026.

In four years by the end of 2029, Manteca is on pace to surpass Merced as the fourth largest city in the Northern San Joaquin Valley after Stockton, Modesto, and Tracy.

Merced grew by 780 people last year. Based on current numeric growth Merced will reach 102,555 and Manteca 102,695 in 2029.

Tracy added 929 residents in 2025 to take bragging rights away from Merced for being the third largest city in San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Merced counties. Tracy is now at 99,705 and Merced is at 99,435.

And by the end of 2030 Manteca is on pace to take over the No. 3 spot for Northern San Joaquin Valley from Tracy. In doing so, it will also be the second largest city in San Joaquin County.

Thirty-five years ago, Manteca was the county’s fourth largest city behind Stockton, Lodi, and Tracy and the sixth largest in the region behind Turlock.

Manteca been steadily climbing up the population ranking for California’s 483 cities for the past four decades.

Manteca was 146th in 2000 with a population of 62,691.

It was the 100th largest with 84,800 residents in 2020.

Growth, you could say, has Manteca’s number.

uIt is in the heart of the fastest growing region in California.

uIt isn’t hemmed in when it comes to the ability to grow.

uThanks to water secured through a two-phased agreement with the South San Joaquin Irrigation District for treated surface water wedded with groundwater the city has adequate water sources based on a water study using 2018 per capita consumption rates to support a population of 160,000.

uIt has 10,000 plus residential units in various stages of the entitlement process.

uState laws passed in recent years ban cities from trying to stop or slow down housing growth if they have adequate water and wastewater treatment plant capacity.

The fact that Manteca has been in growth mode since 1960 when the city had 8,242 residents shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who lives here or who has moved here.

Consider the population growth percentages based on Census data for the past 11 decades: 92% from 1950 thru 1959, 116.7% from 1960 thru 1969, 80% from 1970 thru 1979, 63.6% from 1980 thru 1989, 20.8% from 1990 thru 1999, 36.2% from 2000 thru 2009, 24.4% 2010 thru 2019, and 20 percent (so far this decade) from 2000 thru 2025.

Manteca even grew during the three worst years of the Great Recession averaging between 250 and 300 new homes annually that was more in 2009, 2010, and 2011 than all other jurisdictions combined in the Northern San Joaquin Valley.

For someone to move here and then assert they didn’t realize Manteca is in a constant growth mode is borderline laughable.

Manteca, since Ed Powers created the city’s first tract home subdivision in the 1950s — Powers Tract nestled between Manteca High and today’s Spreckels Park — to tap into the post-World War II housing demand, had never really stopped growing.

There have been slowdowns but no complete pauses as in many nearby communities.

It would be noted the collective growth of Manteca, Tracy, Mountain House, and Lathrop is queuing up the day — likely by 2040 — when there could have a pair of 100 percent South County districts for the Board of Supervisors encompassing those four communities along with Ripon and Escalon.

There are very few of Manteca’s 96,551 residents as of Jan. 1, 2026 that can slam the city’s growth per se without having contributed to “the problem” by moving here.