The population of Manteca is expected to top the 100,000 mark within the next decade.

All of those new people are going to need a place to live. And not all of them can afford the single-family homes that are getting more expensive while wages have hit a plateau – putting the dream of homeownership squarely into the hands of those who have the disposable income.

According a report prepared by the consulting firm Mintier Harnish nearly half of all Manteca residents exceed the suggested income-to-housing ratio of 30 percent.

When coupled with the median home price in Manteca exceeding the $300,000 mark, a family would need to make nearly $72,000-a-year in order to comfortably be able to make mortgage payments.

The Manteca Planning Commission heard from the consulting firm on Tuesday when considering the mandated update to the city’s existing General Plan to deal specifically with housing – chiefly low-income options for those who can’t afford the traditional single family dwelling.

The matter next goes before the Manteca City Council for formal consideration. Approval of the draft document will then be forwarded on to the California Department of Housing and Community Development for a sign-off.

It’s the only aspect of the city’s general plan – which is considered by planners to be a “blueprint for growth” – that needs to be approved by an outside agency.

Despite the sweeping implications of the text, the matter generated little discussion amongst the handful of people who attended Tuesday’s informational session.

One developer, Bill Filios, felt the need to set the record straight when a comment was made by a commissioner that there had only been 40 or so affordable housing units built within the last five years. Filios – one of the partners of AKF Development and an active developer in other ventures – pointed out that an entire apartment complex designed for low-income families was built with the last year and provides nearly 150 units that go to those who qualify.

According to Mintier Harnish, Manteca’s population is expected to grow 36 percent within the next 8 years – the length of time that the housing element portion of the general plan is active – to top out at more than 103,000 residents by 2023.

Manteca as a whole, according to statistics provided in the report, has considerably  more single family homes than the state average – 77 percent of all housing units in Manteca fit into that category while California as a whole drags behind at only 58 percent.

As a result, the city is behind the state average in multi-family residential options with 18 percent of the total compared to the 31 percent that serves as the statewide average. And of homes that qualify as low-income, 49.9 percent of those are run by single mothers. Nearly 20 percent of all homes in Manteca house 5 or more people compared to the statewide average of 16.4 percent, and of the 25,000 farm workers in San Joaquin County, no migrant residential housing exists within the city limits.

But Manteca isn’t alone in trying to put language into place to govern the construction of affordable housing for families who need assistance.

The San Joaquin Council of Governments has made the determination that 40,360 housing units are needed within the next 8-year period, and that means that Manteca is on the hook for 4,401 of those.

Lathrop is excepted to plan for 5,156 housing units during the same time period.

Commissioner Roberto Alaniz pointed out that while the median cost for a single-family home in Manteca has risen sharply in recent years, individual earnings have not kept up to that rate. The consultant pointed out that the average developer spends $209,000 to actually construct the dwelling while paying $66,000 for the property that it sits on.

The housing element will be before the Manteca City Council next month and is on-track to be sent for state consideration by the end of December – the legal cutoff date for submission.