Manteca for the third straight month fell short of the state-mandated goal to reduce overall water use by 32 percent over 2013 consumption levels.

Overall Mantecans reduced water use 28.6 percent in September. That follows a 28.4 percent cutback in August. The combined efforts of residents, businesses, the city, and schools reduced water use by 31 percent in July, 38 percent in June, 34 percent in May, 30 percent in April, 16 percent in March, 23 percent in February, and 16 percent in January.

Public Works Director Mark Houghton said he expects the state will issue the city a warning later this month. If Manteca continues to fail to meet its mandated water reduction goals the state could impose sanctions starting with forcing the city to cutback landscape irrigation from three to two days a week.

“This is a significant reduction and reflects a substantial effort by the community to save water,” Houghton said of the 28.6 reduction.

The National Weather Service’s Sacramento office this week circulated a PBS YouTube video that illustrates the danger of putting too much stock in an El Nino forecast.

The video notes that forecasts aren’t always correct and that an El Nino projection doesn’t always mean above average or even normal precipitation.

More problematic for the farmers and cities served  by the South San Joaquin Irrigation District not all El Nino systems bring above average — or even average — precipitation to the mid-Sierra that feeds the Stanislaus River when they deliver above average rainfall elsewhere.

Overall, Southern California typically benefits the most. That will have minimal impact on water storage critical for bridging the summer and fall months given the south state doesn’t have that much storage capacity. Sixty percent of the state’s developed water supply relies on the Sierra snowpack to serve as de facto storage.

And even if a wetter winter and spring materializes in the central Sierra, it would take 3.1 times the rainfall and snow that fell on the Stanislaus River watershed this past year for the SSJID to be where they are at now when October 2016 rolls around.

That’s because reservoir storage has been drawn down so much during the four years so far of severe drought.

While the SSJID ends their irrigation season on Monday, they are still imploring people not to relax water conservation efforts as the weather cools as 2016 as it stands now is dicey at best.