Serious crime in Manteca — from vehicle theft to robbery — is down 28.71 percent for the year through July compared to the same seven-month period in 2019.
The crime rate drop may be attributed in part of the pandemic and the fact many people were staying home that in turn reduced the potential for property crimes of opportunity. But even before the pandemic hit, the 11 felonies that constitute Part One Crimes tracked by the FBI were already in decline.
Statistics compiled by the Manteca Police Department showed there was an 11 percent drop in felonies in January of this year compared to January of 2019.
In comparing this year through July 31 with the first seven months of last year, felonies are down 28.71 percent dropping from 1,275 to 909, overall burglaries — residential, commercial, auto, and others — are down 34.83 percent going from 422 to 275, misdemeanor thefts are down 10.95 percent dropping from 475 to 423, total misdemeanors are down 19.64 percent doing from 1,920 to 1,543, and miscellaneous offenses involving alcohol or drugs along with forgery/fraud and domestic violence are off 35.66 percent going from830 to 534.
The most stunning number by far based on annual Manteca Police Department crime reports is residential burglaries. There were 110 in 2019 down 32.52 percent in 2018 when there were 163 burglaries. That downward trend is continuing with residential burglaries down 23.36 percent so far this year.
Burglaries numbered 719 last year as opposed to 864 in 2018.
The number of burglaries is the lowest since at least 2000. It is almost exactly 38 percent less than the peak year for burglaries when there were 1,101 committed in Manteca in 2011 when there were 16,800 less residents than the 85,000 there are today.
More significantly is the burglary rate per 1,000 residents was nearly half in 2019 compared to 2011. That is reflected by 8.4 burglaries per 1,000 in 2019 as opposed to 15.9 in 2011.
The reason why the crime rate per 1,000 used by agencies ranging from the FBI to local police departments is simple — raw numbers for crime don’t provide the perspective of an increase in the number of potential victims.
The crime per 1,000 takes into account population growth to put numeric increases or decreases into perspective for an apple to apple comparison in terms of overall burglaries and felonies. It why is the matrix the FBI uses to determine crime rates and the relative safety of communities
Per 1,000 resident data punches large holes in the argument that crime is increasing as Manteca grows.
In raw numbers all felonies were down 7.8 percent in 2019 with 4 of the 11 categories known as Part One Crimes were up — rape, grand theft, arson, and homicides. Misdemeanors were down overall dropping 1.34 percent to 3,164.
To contact Dennis Wyatt, email dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com
