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MUSD enrollment bucks state trend; increases by 300
Perspective
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San Joaquin County — led by Manteca Unified — had the largest increase of student enrollment among California 58 counties since last school year.

Manteca accounted for 300 of San Joaquin County’s 842 of increased student enrollment.

Placer County was second at 841.

After that, it was Sutter County at 802, Butte County at 200, San Benito County at 146, Glenn County at 82, and Yuba County at 58.

Statewide, California’s schools declined in enrollment by 74,961 students. Half of that drop was in Los Angeles County, according to data released by the State Department of Education.

The 1.3 percent decline this year statewide was the largest since the 2021-2022 school year. There are now 5.7 million students in California.

Manteca Unified has growth from both new housing and from an increased birthrate among existing households.

While the 300 student growth sounds large and reflects a 1.2 percent growth rate, it is spread over multiple grade levels and school campuses.

For an inkling of the combined classroom space Manteca’s growth represents filling 10 classrooms.

Manteca Unified did not make the Top 5 in terms of numeric growth.

That was Elk Grove Unified that added 1,097 students for a 1.7 percent gain.

Rounding out the top five were Vacaville Unified with 557 additional students (4.9 percent increase), Folsom-Cordova Unified with 537 more students (2.5 percent increase), Clovis Unified with a jump of 382 students (0.9 percent increase), and Roseville City Elementary with 377 more students (3.1 percent increase).

Manteca Unified is now at 25,561 students.

The district’s demographic study projects another 310 additional students will be attending Manteca Unified next school year. If that happens it, would bring MUSD to 25,871 students in terms of enrollment.

State funding is based on a snapshot of those actually are in attendance at school on dates in October. That number is typically lower than the actual enrollment.

The drop-off in enrollment is triggering school budget cuts and projected layoffs throughout much of the state due to the loss in state funding that comes with a loss of ADA.

Although growth helps, Manteca has managed to avoid layoffs and such with the district’s conservative approach to budgeting and resisting the temptation to use one time money — as many districts did with COVID relief funds — for reoccurring expenses.

Takeaways from the state enrollment data follows:

*California K-12 school enrollment declines rapidly due to lower birth rates and a reduction in immigrants.

*Declining enrollment has a significant impact on school budgets and staffing.

*The biggest declines were in private schools, with a 6.6% drop in enrollment, and home schools, with a 3.7% decline.

*Traditional public school enrollment dropped 1.4% and charter public school enrollment fell by 0.3%.

*Nationwide K-12 school enrollment has declined by 2.3% or 1.18 million students over the past five years.

*National projections predict that the country will lose another 2.7 million students by 2031.

*Hispanic students, who make up 56% of California’s student population, had the biggest loss in student enrollment, but not the largest percentage. The number of Hispanic students dropped by 48,064 or 1.48%, while the number of white students dropped by 31,076, or 2.68%.

*The counties with the largest gains in enrollment this year are in Northern California and the Central Valley where it is more affordable for living.

To contact Dennis Wyatt, email dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com