Manteca is likely to hit 100,000 people in its 110th year a city when 2028 rolls around.

And, if the crystal ball folks are right, 17 years later Manteca will reach 156,463 residents.

The year 2040, when the 156,463 population mark could be reached, is shaping up as a pivotal year for the current Manteca City Council in terms of long-range planning.

*Twenty years from now, the temporary three-quarter of a cent Measure Q sales tax will have run its course.

*And so will a room tax sales split with Great Wolf that helped lure the mega indoor water park resort to Manteca.

The Measure Q sales tax spending plan city staff is now piecing together after receiving general direction from the council in March, will go a long way toward determine the quality of life in Manteca in 2040.

And what amenities are put in place — along with development of the family entertainment  zone, the city’s location, population, and growth as a potent economic elixir — could cement Manteca as a regional market hub.

The reason is simple.

Between the cities of Manteca, Lathrop, and Ripon forecasting by the San Joaquin Council of Governments in conjunction with the University of the Pacific projects the three cities will have a combined 251,103 residents by 2040.

That’s larger than the current population of Modesto at 218,935.

How Manteca positions itself using Measure Q sales tax receipts could reshape cultural, shopping, entertainment, and even dining options using the collective population weight of the three communities.

*Ripon, now at 15,753, is targeting a 2040 population of  22,582.

*Lathrop, now at 38,596, is targeting a 2040  population of 72,052.

*Manteca, now at 93,703, is targeting a 2040 population of 156,463.

“Targeting” is an appropriate term to use.

It’s because all three cities have adopted state required municipal service plans.

And the plans have been certified by the San Joaquin County Local Agency Formation Commission tasked by the state to make sure growth is done “smart” and that cities are planning to accommodate it.

The plans use historic growth trends, assess the current municipal services, evaluate general plan zoning, and then determine if a city has a strategy in place to serve projected growth.

“Projected growth” is key.

There’s no way to come up with a hard number of how many residents each city will actually have in 2040. It is an educated projection of the potential growth rate.

The cities could end up with less people in 2040.

But they could also end up with more.

That’s because each city — besides have zoning in place to allow housing development and such for projected populations — also have urban reserves and a sphere of influence.

Urban reserves are what the name implies.

It is land not zoned per se for housing with all of the policy decisions that entails using the general plan as a blueprint for growth. But it could be developed to some degree within the 2040 time frame depending on the actual path of development and market.

The sphere of influence is land not within the city but is considered logical for future annexation.

If all of the land within cities and the annexation of all of the respective spheres is developed, it can accommodate:

*211,003 residents in Manteca.

*95,931 residents in Lathrop.

*32,207 residents in Ripon.

Altogether, the number is 309,140 residents.

 Separation between

the three cities

Lathrop and Manteca already border each other.

The tracks ACE train takes to reach San Jose serves at the shared city limits of the two cities.

It also, for the most part, acts as the boundaries of each city’s sphere of influence as the communities growth northward.

Manteca’s actual city limits, as it stands now, is roughly 1.5 to 1.75 miles from Ripon’s sphere of influence in three places.

*East of Graves Road that T-intersects with Austin Road just north of the Highway 99 interchange. That point is roughly midway between Jack Tone and Austin Road.

*Southeast, as the crow flies, of Sedan Avenue and Main Street where Raymus Homes is prepping land for a new subdivision to a point on Austin Road less than a mile from where Sedan Avenue T-intersects with it.

*East Highway 120 (East Yosemite Avenue in Manteca at point midway between Austin Road and Jack Tone Road.

To contact Dennis Wyatt, email dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com