Is Manteca less safe than Tracy?

It depends.

Based on raw crime numbers from 2024 compiled by the FBI, Tracy had four times the number of homicides.

When it comes to violent crimes — as defined by homicides, rapes, aggravated assaults and armed robbery, Manteca had 325 crimes versus 300 for Tracy.

Manteca had less property crimes – 1,374 compared to 1,584 for Tracy. Property crimes include burglary, larceny/theft, burglary, and arson.

Tracy, as of Jan. 1, 2026, had 99,705 residents while Manteca’s population was 96,557 for a difference of 3,142 people. That translates into Tracy having 3 percent more people.

Tracy has 109 sworn police officers, Manteca 83 for a difference of 26. That translates into roughly 30 percent more officers in Tracy.

You can find all the raw data for every United States city using the FBI Crime Data Explorer website at cde.ucr.cjis.gov.

In the upcoming Nov. 3 mayor race, challenger Jacob Naven — instead of just uttering platitudes that he supports law enforcement and that Manteca needs more police officers — has rolled out a policy proposal.

Whether you agree with his proposal to freeze general fund hiring — except for police officers — and to make cuts in parks and recreation spending until such time the city finds $1.4 million a year to go from 83 to 90 officers, he has actually staked out an alternate course of action than the one that incumbent Gary Singh and his colleagues are pursuing.

Said course has led to nine more firefighter positions and five more police officer positions added in the past two years.

That is a record for Manteca, but Naven doesn’t believe that is good enough. And there are clearly others that agree with him.

In 2024 — the last year crime data is available that has been vetted by the FBI, Tracy had less incidents of crime in the following categories:

*37 rapes compared to 40 for Manteca.

*175 aggravated assaults compared to 216 for Manteca.

*153 burglaries compared to 184 for Manteca.

*8 arsons compared to 15 for Manteca.

Manteca, in 2024, had less incidents of crime in the following categories:

*1 homicide compared to 4 for Tracy.

*68 armed robberies compared to 84 for Tracy.

*968 thefts/larcenies compared to 1,166 for Tracy.

*222 vehicle thefts compared to 265 for Tracy.

For the most part, there is not a large numerical difference between the two cities in various crime categories.

That said, one instance of crime is too much.

And when it happens to you, it tends to color your perception.

It should be noted most victims of violent crime — homicide, rape, aggravated assault (think domestic violence) — know the perpetrator.

Property crimes, on the other hand, are conducted overwhelmingly by strangers.

And it is clear having your house burglarized, car stolen, or vehicle broken into shatters your sense of security.

Manteca is right up there with Tracy in terms of response time for high priority calls where a life is in danger or a crime such as an armed robbery or burglary are in progress.

It’s likely very few people would be against having more police.

But in a finite funding situation, what are they willing to trim? Street repairs, library hours, keeping on top of cleaning up trash, recreational programs, or a number of other things?

Naven is likely right that more manpower invested in public safety can have a measurable impact.

But is it necessary a $200,000 police officer?

A couple of code enforcement officers at $80,000 a pop can address blight and make inroads into addressing “the broken windows” that are considered as factors that foster crime.

A social worker team that specializes in dealing with mental health and even domestic violence related calls has been found to effectively reduce crimes associated with both.

A couple more community service officers tasked with making neighborhood watch endeavors much more robust and engaging more in crime prevention efforts with businesses have been proven to reduce the odds of people being victims of crime.

Would stepping up recreation programs and/or teen and youth centers reduce criminal mischief among young people that tends to be the gateway offenses to more serious crimes?

There is little doubt additional officers beefing up patrols and community policing will have a positive effect.

But what is the most effective way to tackle community safety and a sense of well-being in terms of expenditures on law enforcement and city services overall?

The best example of that are speed lumps.

They have reduced speed, for the most part, in streets where they have been placed that is a 24/7 impact.

We need more police but we need to be smart and take a holistic approach.