David Cushman is optimist about the impact Republican voters will have on the June 2 primary election to select the two run-off candidates for Governor of California in the November general election.

The Manteca resident and chair of the San Joaquin County Republican Committee said on Thursday Republicans are outperforming Democrats in terms of mail-in ballots received by the county election office.

Usually, those registered as Democrats dominate early ballot returns and Republicans dominate in terms of Election Day voting.

Cushman said the 12 percent edge purely in terms of ballots returned based on party affiliation Republicans are currently enjoying essentially overcomes the deficit the GOP has in registration numbers in San Joaquin County.

By Cushman’s estimations, Republicans currently have a 1 percent led in advance voting in the county when they would typically be lagging.

Chisman believes that is a good sign that there will likely be one Republican on the November ballot — either Steve Hilton or Chad Bianco.

The Secretary of State’s office as of February 2025 reported 41.6 percent of the registered voters in San Joaquin County are Democrats while 30.18 percent are Republicans.

It has been a general assumption for the past 30 years that each family that packed up and headed east over the Altamont Pass in search of affordable housing was turning San Joaquin County bluer with each passing election.

That may no longer be the case.

Donald Trump in 2024 beat Kamala Harris 49.94 percent to 47.46 percent among votes cast in San Joaquin County.

It marked the first time since 2004 when a Republican presidential candidate carried San Joaquin County.

That’s when George W. Bush was at the top of the Republican ticket.

For the last three presidential elections, San Joaquin County has gone Democratic by roughly a 14 percent margin.

*In 2020, Joe Biden 55.61 percent, Trump 41.78 percent.

*In 2016, Hillary Clinton 53.36 percent, Trump 39.18 percent.

*In 2012, Barrack Obama 55.57 percent, Mitt Romney 41.91 percent.

The 28 percent of voters in San Joaquin County that identify as neither Republican of Democrat have the ability to impact how the overall county ends up voting.

Evidence that San Joaquin County has been more purple and slowly adding more of a red hue is hiding in plain sight.

Supervisor Robert Rickman of Tracy has enjoyed success at the ballot box even though he is not liberal but more of a moderate.

The trend in San Joaquin County in more voters casting ballots for Republicans is also reflected in election trends in Stanislaus and Merced counties.

Cushman was John Cox’s statewide volunteer coordinator in the Republican’s unsuccessful 2018 race against Gavin Newsom for governor.

He was a campaign staffer for former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer in the 2021 Newsom recall election.

To contact Dennis Wyatt, email dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com