Great Wolf Resorts is still interested in building what could be its first California location in Manteca.

Negotiations between the resort’s developer partner - Colorado-based McWhinney Development - and the City of Manteca are still underway. The key factor on whether both sides agree to go forward has everything to do with how public infrastructure connected with the site that would also open up other city-owned land for development is financed.

Manteca is currently exploring options for financing things such as sewer, water, and storm lines as well as streets, lights, and other public owned improvements. That’s one piece of the puzzle. The other is what it will cost.

Also factoring into the equation is the 30 acres of city-owned land Great Wolf Resorts wants to acquire to build a 400 to 600 room hotel with a 75,000-square-foot indoor water park plus a conference center  just to the west of Costco. The fair market value of that land would generate funds the city could put toward infrastructure

The demise of the redevelopment agency sidetracked the process. City Manager Karen McLaughlin, though, noted last week that Great Wolf Resort representatives understand the situation.

McLaughlin noted the city is exploring public financing options that have been used for years in other states that don’t have redevelopment agencies.

Obviously a financing option that puts the city at no exposure would be preferred by Manteca’s elected leaders. That’s where the motel room tax comes into play.

Based on Great Wolf’s income at their water park resort in Ground Mound, Washington, the conservative number for annual room tax receipts the city would receive is $4 million. It could go as high as $6 million but that number would be too risky to base a financing strategy on. Also, Great Wolf won’t cannibalize existing room tax receipts but could actually enhance them through gatherings at the conference center that would involve non-Great Wolf Resort guests who have to stay elsewhere

There won’t be a sales tax deal as was done with The Promenade Shops at Orchard Valley for 35 years or Costco for 10 years for two reasons. First, elected leaders have indicated at various times that they don’t have a desire for another sales tax split because they doubt any deal could replicate with Orchard Valley or Costco. The bigger reason, though, is Great Wolf won’t be generating much sales tax.

It’s the conservative $4 million projection in annual room tax or 10 times the amount of room tax the city currently receives each year that is at the heart of everything.

Any financing of public improvements is likely to have a 10- to 20-year payback.

At the same time, the city has to have solid justification to borrow the money in terms of how Manteca residents would benefit.

That means a plan that would essentially split $4 million a year - the conservative room tax projection - between debt payment and going to the city’s general fund for a set time. A 50-50 split would in all likelihood be the farthest that elected leaders might be able to stomach.

That would mean Manteca could get $2 million more a year in constant  dollars while debt is being paid off.

That $2 million a year under the current municipal budget split would translate into $800,000 a year for police, $360,000  year for fire and $840,000 for other government operations. That would translate into enough money each year to fund seven police officers or about 15 percent more manpower than is currently on the streets. At the same time $360,000 would fund three firefighters or a third of the staffing needed for the fourth firehouse being planned adjacent to Del Webb at Woodbridge on Lathrop Road.

Under such a scenario based on constant dollars  the city would be able to double those staffing numbers once the infrastructure debt is paid off.

Then there is the caveat of 570 year round jobs with a $9.4 million annual payroll. If the bulk of those jobs went to Manteca residents it would reduce today’s unemployment rate by a full 2 percent. The synergy of Big League Dreams, Bass Pro Shops, and Great Wolf being within a mile of each other could trigger other tourist-orientated ventures to draw more tax dollars from non-residents to pay for services plus create jobs.

If a Great Wolf deal is struck, it would take 2.5 years to get the resort up and running.

Taxes paid by non-Manteca sources - paying Great Wolf guests - to help run Manteca’s day-to-day government operations plus 570 year-round  private sector jobs are why Great Wolf matters.

The real question, though, is whether it can work without creating major risk for the city.

This column is the opinion of managing editor, Dennis Wyatt, and does not necessarily represent the opinion of The Bulletin or Morris Newspaper Corp. of CA.  He can be contacted at dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com or 209-249-3519.