Thomas Pogue keeps tabs on the economic health of the Northern San Joaquin Valley.
Pogue — who serves as the associate director for the University of Pacific’s Center for Business and Policy Research — is one of three speakers for Manteca’s inaugural State of the City. It takes place Thursday, Jan. 25, from 7:30 to 9:30 a.m. at the Manteca Transit Center. A light breakfast precedes the start of the program at 8 a.m. that includes Google West Region Manager for State, Local, and Education Markets as well as Mayor Steve DeBrum.
Tickets are $15 per person. They are available on line at the Manteca Chamber of Commerce website at manteca.org or by calling (209) 823.6121.
The chamber will also be presenting two awards. Sunnyvalley Smoked Meats will be presented the Excellence in Business Award. Creative Arts Zone will receive the Newcomers Business Award.
Pogue is part of the UOP team that compiles economic forecasts, examines demographic trends, shifts through census data, and is responsible for the Northern San Joaquin Valley Index. The annual index examines issues for regional economic integration and growth involving San Joaquin, Stanislaus and Merced counties and its 1.5 million plus residents.
Key findings in the 2016 Northern San Joaquin Valley Index issued in November:
Employment growth remains strong with a 3 percent jump in jobs last year, down from 4.7 percent the previous year.
Unemployment dipped below 10 percent in 2015 for the first time since 2008.
The region’s gross product was slightly below pre-recession levels in 2014 and surged above that watermark in 2015 thanks to 4.2 percent annual growth.
Average wags increased substantially across the board in 2015 after being stagnant for more than a decade. They remain, however, below pre-recession levels.
The value of agricultural production — the region’s leading sector — reached $12.1 billion in 2014. It receded to $10.2 billion I 2015 due to a fall in commodity process and some reduced production due to the drought.
The region grew 1.21 percent between 2014 and 2015. That translated into 20,000 new residents to push the population of the three counties past the 1.53 million mark. Net domestic and international migration into the 209 was positive for the second straight year.
Over the next 45 years, population growth is projected to average 1.8 percent annually. By 2060, the 209’s population will exceed 2.6 million.
Education of the region’s population is improving. The share of the population with a bachelor’s degree or higher went from 13.7 percent to 17.2 percent between 2000 and 2015. The segment of the adult population lacking a high school diploma dropped 6.4 percent. The Northern San Joaquin Valley however still lags behind the state and national average.
Median home values for the region in 2015 were 35 percent below the peak in 2006. They have grown 65 percent since 2011 when they hit bottom.
The percentage of residents without health insurance rose to 93 percent in 2015, up from 81 percent in 2013 due to the Affordable Care Act.
Pogue received his B.A. and M.A. in Economics from the University of Nevada, Reno and his Ph.D. in the Economics of Technological Change from Maastricht University in the Netherlands. Prior to joining the Center for Business and Policy Research, he worked at several research institutes including the South African Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Tshwane University’s Institute for Economic research on Innovation, the University of Cape Town’s Development Policy Research Unit, and the University of Nevada’s Center for Economic Development.
The State of the City is being co-sponsored by the City of Manteca and the Manteca Chamber of Commerce.
To contact Dennis Wyatt, email firstname.lastname@example.org