Storm drainage and annexation issues in southwest Manteca impeding progress on two new elementary schools could end up changing attendance boundaries throughout the city.

It is a growing possibility if the City of Manteca can’t come up with resolutions in the coming months that allow Manteca Unified to proceed with new elementary schools on Tinnin Road and the Tara site in southwest Manteca.

The city is working on a possible temporary solution with the South San Joaquin Irrigation District that would allow storm runoff from the Tara site to flow into the French Camp Outlet.

As for the Tinnin site, the city won’t allow the extension of sewer and water to an elementary school unless the district can somehow convince nearby homeowners to annex to Manteca, of which the majority are dead-set against.

That is preventing the district from annexing the 56-acre Tinnin site and accessing city services.

Proceeding without the district annexing to the city means the placement of costly septic systems and a water well to serve a campus of 1,200 plus students. That would reduce the number of new classrooms the district can build with available funds to accommodate students for new homes the city is issuing permits to be built.

The city, in other instances, has allowed the extension of city services to property outside the city limits as long as the land in question annexes eventually.

Manteca Unified more than a year ago issued community facilities districts bonds so they could qualify for available state bonds money to build new schools.

The timeline was to have started physical work on the two schools last fall so they could be ready for the start of the 2027-2028 school year.

That will not happen now due to the annexation and storm runoff issues.

And if those issues aren’t settled in the coming months, it could jeopardize the opening a school in time for the 2029-2030 school year.

A future decision that could further

anger southwest Manteca residents

No resolution by the end of summer or so, would cue up a decision by the Manteca Unified Board.

To avoid both schools from being delayed, they could proceed with the more expensive option for Tinnin Road with septic and water well or pull the trigger on adding additional classrooms at the Nile Garden School campus.

That would mean the school that would serve students within walking distance of much of southwest Manteca — the Tara site — would be delayed further.

It also would mean current and future students from the fastest growing area in the city would continue to be pushed to other campuses.

Not only would that require expensive busing, but it would lead to one of two decisions —busing new students in southwest Manteca to schools farther away north of the 120 Bypass and or in Lathrop or redrawing elementary attendance boundaries.

Neither decision would likely sit well with southwest Manteca residents or those impacted that have children going to elementary schools elsewhere in the city.

Given once new schools are completed —a process that takes close to three years — it would require changing attendance boundaries again, the “simplest” temporary solution would be to bus new students elsewhere.

But that has other factors that can create more issues.

The areas south of the 120 Bypass, besides in the southwest part of the city, are still seeing residential growth are as other areas of Manteca.

The schools with the most capacity are in Weston Ranch. It is unlikely the district would bus students there.

But it is not out of the question if growth continues at its current pace and new school construction is further delayed, students living in southwest Manteca homes yet to be built could be sent to schools as far away as Golden West.

Another wild card is classroom level capacity versus school site capacity.

Growth does not generate perfect classroom sized packages of 30 students at a specific grade level.

Nor is the capacity that is available at specific schools distributed evenly across each grade.

That means the district — for a family that moves into a future new home in southwest Manteca that has a second grader and fourth grader — could have to find an elementary campus that could take both or split them between schools.

The lopsided growth in southwest Manteca coupled with growth elsewhere has made the shifting of attendance boundaries on a large scale instead of small adjustments as in the past, the only way the district can accommodate new households without building the two new elementary schools.

The worst “first” option

And while another fallback position could be adding classrooms first at Nile Garden, if development patterns shift the district could end up with one of its largest elementary campuses accommodating 1,500 basically in the rural countryside.

Currently, more than 95 percent of the enrollment is from within the city limits.

The absence of sidewalks as well as narrow two-lane country roads to reach Nile Garden from the city makes walking perilous and almost assures every student is either bused or driven.

Eventually the land between the city and Nile Garden is likely to be annexed and more homes built.

But realistically, that is likely years away.

As such, proceeding with super-sizing the school that is the closest to southwest Manteca that could be effectively expanded as opposed to Veritas would be creating classroom capacity outside the path of growth.

To contact Dennis Wyatt, email dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com